تأثیر بهره‌وری نیروی کار، امنیت سرمایه‌گذاری، نرخ ارز و شرایط تجاری بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران در شرایط ثبات و بی‌ثباتی

مدیریت بهره‌وری

مقاله 8، دوره 5، 1(16)بهار، خرداد 1390، صفحه 173-222   

نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

کامبیز هژبر کیانی^{* 1}؛ محمدرضا ناهیدی²

¹عضو هیأت علمی گروه اقتصاد،واحدعلوم و تحقیقات تهران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،تهران،ایران

²دانش‌آموخته دکترای تخصصی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران / عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تبریز

چکیده

در چند دهه گذشته جذب سرمایه‌‌های مستقیم خارجی یکی از راه‌های تامین مالی کشورها برای افزایش سطح سرمایه‌گذاری درداخل بوده است. در این راستا شرایط اقتصادی کشورهای میزبان برای افزایش سطح سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار بوده است. از این رو در این مطالعه بررسی تاثیر برخی از متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر FDI در ایران مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرد. دوره زمانی انتخابی 1352 تا 1385 و تکنیک اقتصادسنجی مورد استفاده در این مقاله، روش خود توضیح‌برداری با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL) برای شرایط ثبات و روش واریانس ناهمسانی شرطی خود رگرسیون تعمیم‌یافته (GARCH) برای شرایط بی‌ثباتی بعد از آزمون آرچ LM و تاثیر وجود ناهمسانی در مدل می‌باشد. نتایج تخمین مدل بیانگر این است که در شرایط ثبات براساس سه خروجی در کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت افزایش نرخ ارز تاثیر منفی بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی داشته، همچنین افزایش بهره‌وری نیروی کار، امنیت سرمایه‌گذاری دوره 1-t، امنیت سرمایه‌گذاری در دوره t و درجه باز بودن اقتصاد تاثیر مثبت بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی داشته است. نتایج برآورد مدل پویا نیز وجود رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرهای ذکر شده و خالص سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی را تائید می‌کند. مدل تصحیح خطا (ECM) نیز حاکی از آن است که تعدیل به سمت مقدار تعادلی یا بلندمدت خالص سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی حدود 5/1 سال طول می‌کشد. نتایج تخمین مدل تحت شرایط بی‌ثباتی نیز به لحاظ نوع اثرگذاری متغیرهای توضیحی روی متغیر وابسته به مانند مدل کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت باثبات بوده با ضرائب متفاوت اثرگذار، همچنین نشان‌دهنده اثر ملیت شوک ایجاد شده در شرایط بی‌ثباتی روی کاهش خالص سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی؛ نرخ ارز؛ بهره‌وری نیروی کار؛ درجه باز بودن اقتصاد؛ امنیت سرمایه‌گذاری؛ خود توضیح‌برداری با وقفه‌های گسترده؛ واریانس ناهمسانی شرطی خود رگرسیون تعمیم یافته

مراجع

Agiomirgianakis, G. & Asteriou, D. & Papathoma,(2006), "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Panel Data Study For The OECD countries", Department of Economics, City University Lodnon, No. 03/06.

Alijani, R. (2007). The Study of the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Export and Economic Growth in Iran. PhD Thesis, Tabriz: Islamic Azad University, (In Persian).

Alaya, M.,(2004), "Do south countries of the Mediterranean Basin Really Benefit from foreign direct Investment?", C.E.F., University of Montesquieu- Bordeaux IV.

Alfaro, L. & Chanda, A. & Özcan, Ş. & Sayek, S.,(2003), "FDI Spillovers, Financial markets and Economic Development.

Alfaro, L. & Chanda, A. & Ozcan, S. & Sayek, S.,(2006), "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Exploring the Effect of Financial Markets on Linkage", NEUDC, Macroeconomic Meeting and University of Oregon for useful comments and suggestions.

Alfaro, L. & Chanda, H. & Özcan, Ş. & Sayek, S.,(2002), "FDI and Economic Grouth: The Role of Local Financial Markets", The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and net necessarily represent those of the IMF. April.

Aizenman, J.,(1992), "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatity and Pattern of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment", IMF, Wp/92/20.

Akkash, A. (1993). Foreign Investments, Economic Freedom, Algerian Experience. Translated by: M. Mohammadi, Bureau of Political and International Studies, (In Persian).

Anders, W. (2007). Time Series Econometrics with a Practical Approach. Translated by: M. Sadeghi & S. Shoalpour, Tehran: Imam Sadiq University Press, (In Persian).

Besancenot, D. & Vranceanu, R.,(2001), "Manager honesty and foreign investment in developing countries", Research in Economics (2002), 56.

Blomstrom, M. & Kokke, A. & Zeng, M.,(2003), "Host country competition and Technology Transfer by multinationals", Welt wirts chattliches Archiv, Band 130.

Borenztien, E.,(1989), "The Effect of External Debt on Investment", Finance and Development, Sep.

Branson, W. (2005). Theory and Policies of Macroeconomics. Translated by: A. Shakeri, Tehran: Ney Puplication, (In Persian).

Busse, M. & Groizard. J.,(2008), "FDI, Regulations and Growth", Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA), Neuer Jungfernstige 21, 20347 Hamburg, Germany.

Carison, M. & Hernandez. I.,(2002), "Determinant and Repercussion of the Composition of Capital Inflows", IMF, WP/02/ 86.

Casson, M,(1979), "Altirnatatives to Multinational Enterprise", London, Macmilan Press, XIII.

Caves, R.,(1974), "Multinational Corporatiyes, Competitior and Productivity in Host country Markets", Economical Journal, Vol.41.

Chan, B. & Schahidur, R.,(1997), "Effect of Inwara Foreign Direct Investment on the Singapore Economy", East-Asia Economic Issues vol. III, W.W.ca. NBER.

Chow, Y. & Zeng, J.,(2001), "Foreign capital in a Neoclassical Model of  Growth", Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 8.

Dehejia, H. & Weichenrieder, J.,(2001), "Tariff Jumping foreign Investment and Capital taxation", Journal of International Economics, Vol, 51.

Diffidld, N. & Taylor. K. (2000), "FDI and Labour Market of the Evidence and Policy." Globalization and Labour Market Papers, Vol.16. No 30.

Edalatfam, M. (2006). Explaining Effective Economic Factors on the Recruitment of Foreign Direct Investment in Iran. Master's Thesis, Tabriz: Islamic Azad University, (In Persian).

Egger, P & Pfaffermayr. M., (2002), "A Note on Labour Productivity and Foreign Inward Direct Investment", Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

Elo, K., (2007), "The Eeffect of Capital controls on Foreign Direct Investment Decisions under Country Risk with Intangible Assets", IMF Working Paper, Wp/07/79.

Ermisch, K. & Heinz, A.,(2000), "The impact of political instability on FDI: an econometric study of direct investment from united kingdom and united states in Canada across industries and over time", IMF W/P, WP/21/132.

Estalon, S., (2006), "Impact of Financial Markets, on FDI", Working Paper of Esti Pank, No. 28.

Fethi, A., (2007), "Technoligical Progress, FDI and investment climate: The case of Tunisian industry", Werking Paper of EL manar Tunis University.

Fontage, L., (1999), "Excheng Rate strategies in competition Attracting FDI", SSrn WP/99/60.

Gastanaga, M. & Nougent J. & Pasharmova. B.,(1998), "House country Reform and FDI Inflows: How Much Difference do They Make?", World Development Report Vol 5. No 7, 199-1314.

Gerda, D. & Holger. G & Catia. M., (2003), "Should I Stay or Should I Go? A Note on Employment Protection, Domestic Anchorage, and FDI". Discussion Paper No. 848 (IZA DP No. 848).

Gersbach, H. & Schmutzler. A, (2006), "Foreign Direct Investment and R & D offshoring", Working Paper of ZURICH University, No. 0606.

Goldberg, L., (2004), "Financial- Sector Foreign Direct Investment and Host Countries: New and old Lessons", Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff Reports, Vol, No. 183.

Goodspeed, T. & Vazquez, J. & Zhang, L., (2006), "Are other Government Policies more Important than Taxation in Attracting FDI?" Georgia State University.

Hadi Zenuz, B. (2000). Foreign Investment in Iran. Didavar Publishing, (In Persian).

Hajili, M. (2000). Foreign Direct Investment. Economic Trends, 28 & 29, (In Persian).

Harrison, E. & Macmillan, M.,(2003), "Does direct foreign Investment affect domestic credit constraints?", Journal of International Economics, Vol. 61.

Hosseinzadeh Bahreini, M. H. (2003). Factors Affecting on the Investment Security in Iran. Two Economic Quarterly Reports, 2, (In Persian).

Jenkins, R., (1991), "Transnational Corporations and Uneven Development", Routledge Publication, London.

Jun, J., (1989), "Tax Plie and International Direct Investment", Cambridge national of Economic Research WP/No. 3048.

Kamijani, A. (2006). Explaining the Role of Factors Affecting on the Foreign Direct Investment in Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 73, (In Persian).

Katuria, V. & Das, S.,(2005), "Impact of FDI on R & D Strategies Firms in the pas-1991 Era", IMF Confrence.

Khalili Araghi, M., & Ramezanpour, I. (2001). The Importance of a Sustainable Macroeconomic Environment. Journal of Economic Research, 58, (In Persian).

Lahiri, S. & Kayalica, M., June, (2006), "The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development" Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.informaworld.com.

Laieyr, J., (2005), "Finanical Economics, International Trade and FDI", Working Paper of Lamo roon, No. 12.

Lalli, S., (2004), "FDI and Development: Policy and Research Issues in the Emerging context", Working paper of oxford University, No, 43.

Lihong, Y., (2006), "Determinats of Export Intensity and FDI Presence case of manufacturing of Guangdong Province", the peoples Republic of china, Logistics and Management, Vol, 2. No. 3.

Loungani, P. & Razin, A.,(2001), "How Beneficial is Foreign Direct Investment for Development Countries", Finance and Development Journal, Vol 38, Issue 2.

Lyer, K. & Rambaldi, A. & Tang. K.,(2004), "Measuring Spillovers from Alternative Forms of Foreign Investment", School of Economics, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.

Menil, G., (2005), "Why should the portfolios of mandatory, private pension founds be captive? (The foreign investment question)", Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 29.

Mirmohammadi, M. (2005). Introduction to Economic Security. Farhang & Andisheh, (In Persian).

Mohammadzadeh Asl, N. (2007). The Effect of Institutional Capital Requirements on Economic Growth in Developing Countries with Emphasis on Iran. PhD Thesis, Tehran: University of Science and Research, (In Persian).

Mohtasham Dolsathahi, T. (2006). International Economics. Pshotan Publication, (In Persian).

Nafari, A., & Partners Brothers, H. R. (1995). Indian Ocean Investment Capacity Incentives. Commercial Letter, 1, (In Persian).

Najarzadeh, R., & Maleki, M. (2005). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Growth with Emphasis on Oil Exporting Countries. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 23, 147-163, (In Persian).

Nawo, R. P. (1994). Financial Management. Translated by: A. Jahan Khani, Tehran: Samt Publication, (In Persian).

Nazifi, F. (1994). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in 14 Developing Countries. Master's Thesis, Tehran: Allameh Tabatabaei University, (In Persian).

Oskonezhad, M. M. (1993). Engineering Economics. Tehran: Amir Kabir University of Technology, (In Persian).

Parsamanesh, M. (1999). The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Iran's Economy. Master's Thesis. Tehran: Tehran University, (In Persian).

Polachek, S. & Seiglie, C. & Xiang, J.,(2005), "Globalization and International Conflict: can FDI Increase Peace?", Rutgers University Newark working Paper, No. 004.

Pourian, H. (2000). Foreign Direct Investment in Iran, Behavior, Barriers and Solutions. Institute for Business Studies and Research, (In Persian).

Rahimi Boroujerdi, A. (1996). A Theoretical Study on the Effect of Endogenous and Exogenous Variables on the Fall of Capital and Foreign Investment in Iran. Monetary and Bank Research Institute, (In Persian).

Raei, R., & Talangi, A. (2004). Advanced Investment Management. Tehran: Samt Publication, (In Persian).

Raezi, A. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment in Iran's Economic Growth. Master's Thesis, Tehran: University of Tehran, (In Persian).

Rahimi Boroujerdi, A. R. (1990). International Economics, International Finance. Tehran: Islamic Azad University Press, (In Persian).

Ramos, A., (2001), "Foreign Direct Investment as catalyst for Human Capital Accumulation", Submitted in Fulfilment of the Mald Thesis Requirement, Fletcher school, Tufts University, Boston.

Ruzbehan, M. (2002). Fundamentals of Economic Development. Taban Publication, (In Persian).

Seyed Noorani, S. M. R. (1994). The Causes and Effects of Foreign Investment on Some Variables of Iran's Economy. PhD Thesis, Tehran: Tarbiat Modarres University, (In Persian).

Sharif Azadeh, M. R., & Hosseinzadeh Bahreini, M. H. (2004). The Impact of Private Investment in Iran on Economic Security Indicators. Mofid Quarterly, 38, (In Persian).

Solow, R., (1957), "Technical change and the Aggregate Production Function", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 39.

Taylor, L., (1994), "Gap Models", Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 45.

Torabi, T., & Mohammadzadeh Asl, N. (2010). Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Transfer. Islamic Tehran: Azad University Press, Science and Research Branch, (In Persian).

Toshkini, A. (2005). Applied Econometrics Using Microfiber. Dibagaran Publishing, (In Persian).

Unctad, (2001), "World Investment Report", Promoting Linkage United Nations. New York.

Unctad, (2005), "The Impact of FDI on Development: Globalization of R & D by Transnational Corporations and Implications for Developing countries, New York.

Unctad, (2008), World Investment, Report.

Urata, S., March, (1998), "Japanes Foreign Direct Investment in Asia, Its Impact on Export Expansion and Technology Acquisition of the Host Economies", Waseda University and Japan Center for Economic Research, pp. 14-164.

Urata, S., (1997), "Foreign Direct Investment (Rough Draft for Discussion).

Vahter, P. & Masso, J., (2005), "Home versus Host Country Effects of FDI: Searching for New Evidence of Productivity Spillovers", Working Papers of Festi Pank, No. 13.

Wen, M., (2004), "Relocation and agglomeration of Chinese industry". Journal of Development Economics, 73.

William, D., (1999), "Foreign Manufacturing Firms in UK: Effects on Employments, out put and Supplier Linkages", European Business Review, Vol 99.

 Yusufpur, Gh. (1990). Technology Transfer. Journal of Political-Economic Information, (In Persian).