Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran

International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development

مقاله 6، دوره 6، شماره 2، شهریور 2016، صفحه 173-180   

نوع مقاله: Research Article

نویسنده

Azadeh Falsafian^*

Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Management, Extension and Education, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

چکیده

The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropriate method for modeling seasonal behavior of the broiler price. Results of seasonal unit root test indicated that the monthly prices of broiler follow a non-stationary stochastic seasonal process. Accordingly, the regression-based model is an appropriate modeling framework. While SARIMA is an alternative modeling approach, the RMSE of forecasting error suggested the superiority of the regression-based model over the SARIMA model. Therefore, the estimated parameters of the regression-based model can be used to predict the monthly prices of broiler in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها

seasonality؛ Broiler price؛ periodic autoregressive (PAR)؛ Seasonal unit root؛ seasonal integrated

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