پیش‌بینی موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید با استفاده از ترکیب تحلیل عاملی و شبکه عصبی مصنوعی

مدیریت بهره‌وری

مقاله 7، دوره 10، 2(37)تابستان، شهریور 1395، صفحه 156-127   

نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

غلامرضا سلطانی فسقندیس¹؛ علیرضا پویا^{* 2}؛ مصطفی کاظمی³؛ زهرا ناجی عظیمی²

¹دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت تحقیق در عملیات، پردیس بین‌الملل، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

²دانشیار دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، گروه مدیریت دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

³استاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، گروه مدیریت دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

موفقیت محصولات جدید به عنوان برترین عامل برای موفقیت شرکت­ها و حتی بقای آنها محسوب می­شود. با این حال بررسی­های متعدد نشان می­دهد که نرخ شکست توسعه محصول جدید به عنوان یک معضل اساسی در بسیاری از شرکت­ها مطرح بوده است. شرکت­های بسیاری سعی دارند تا قبل از توسعه محصول جدید، اقدام به پیش­بینی موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید نمایند. بر همین اساس نیز هدف این تحقیق پیش­بینی موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید با استفاده از ترکیب روش­های تحلیل عاملی و شبکه عصبی مصنوعی در صنایع غذایی و آشامیدنی می­باشد. این تحقیق براساس هدف کاربردی و براساس روش انجام کار توصیفی بوده است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق، شرکت­های تولید کننده مواد غذایی و آشامیدنی استان آذربایجان­شرقی در سال 1394 بوده است. به منظور جمع­آوری داده­ها در این تحقیق از دو پرسشنامه استفاده شده است که بعد از اطمینان از روایی و پایایی آن در بین جامعه آماری توزیع گردیده است. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ها در این تحقیق از روش­های تحلیل عاملی و شبکه عصبی مصنوعی استفاده شده است. نتایج تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ها نشان دهنده وجود شش سازه اصلی مفهوم­سازی محصول جدید، گرایش به بازار، گرایش به طراحی، گرایش به عوامل فنی و تکنولوژی، استفاده از منابع و مدیریت توسعه محصول جدید به عنوان عوامل موثر در موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید بوده است. همچنین پیش­بینی موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید با استفاده از شبکه عصبی مصنوعی نشان می­دهد که شبکه طراحی شده در 81 درصد موارد قادر به پیش­بینی صحیح موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید؛ تحلیل عاملی؛ شبکه عصبی مصنوعی

مراجع

 

-    Puya, A., Soltani Fasaghandis, G. (2015), “A model for assessing lean production in small and medium industries using a combination of confirmatory factor analysis, clustering and PROMOTEE techniques”, Industrial Management Studies, V 3, N 37, 55-90.

-    Puya, A., Eslami, G., Tabatabayi, H. (2012), “Typology of reasons for insisting on decisions in the public sector”, Improved management, V 6, N 1, 31-55.

-    Jafari, K., Radfar, R., Hasnavi, R. (2012), “Explaining Technology Management Functions in New Product Development Using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process”, Innovation Management, V 1, N 1, 6-41.

-    Sarmad Saeedi, S., Mameghani, A. (2010), “Identification and ranking of key factors in the development of the new product in the Saipa automotive group with the AHP approach, Researcher, V 7, N 19, 88-103.

-    Ardakani, S., Zare Ahmad Abadi, H., Talei Far, R., Hatami Nasab, H. (2010), “Analysis of Factors Affecting the Success of New Product Development in Small and Medium Enterprises (Selected Food and Beverage Industries of Fars Province)”, Production management and operations, V 1, N 1, 53-69.

-    Telebi, K., Kachui, R. (2011), “Identify Key Management Factors in the Success of New Product Development Projects in Small and Medium Business Countries”, Modern economy and trade, N 23, 24, 49-66.

-    Telebi, K., Salimi Torkamani, M., Zare, H. (2010), “Identify and prioritize the key success factors in developing new products in small and medium-sized businesses based in Tehran's science and technology parks”, Quarterly Journal of Modern Economics and Business, N 19, 20, 83-100.

-    Keramati, A., Derakhshani, A. (2010), “Ranking of IT supplements in the processes of developing a new product using smart models”, Industrial Engineering Specialist, V 44, N 1, 75-88.

-    Altun, K., Dereli, T. & Baykasoglu, A.(2013), Development of a framework for customer co-creation in NPD through multi-issue negotiation with issue trade-offs, Expert Systems with Applications 40,  873-880.

-    Bentler, P.M. & Chou, C.(1987), Practical issues in structural equation modeling, Sociological Methods and Research, Vol. 16, pp. 78-117.

-    Ceccagnoli, M. (2009), Appropriability, preemption, and firm performance. Strategic Management Journal, 30(1), 81–98.

-    Chiang, T.A. & Che, Z.H. (2010),  A fuzzy robust evaluation model for selecting and ranking NPD projects using Bayesian belief network and weight-restricted DEA, Expert Systems with Applications,  (37)11, 7408-7418.

-    Clark, K, and Wheelwright, S, the Product Development Challenge: Competing through Speed, Quality and Creativity, Harvard Business Review, 1995.

-    Clark, K. B., & Fujimoto, T. (1991), Product development performance. Harvard business School Press, Boston, MA.

-    Cooper, A. & Schendel.D.(2003), Strategic response to technological threats, Business Horizons, Vol.19, No.1, 2003, PP: 61-69.

-    Cooper, R. G. (1993), winning at new products: Accelerating the Process from idea to launch, Addison-Wesley. Reading, MA.

-    Cooper, R. G. (2005), Product leadership: Pathways to profitable innovation. New York, NY, USA: Perseus Publishing.

-    Cooper, R. G., Edgett, S. J., & Kleinschmidt, E. J. (2002a), New product development best practices study: What distinguishes the top performers? Houston, USA: American Productivity & Quality Center.

-    Crawford, C.M. & Di Benedetto, C.A.(2011), New product management, NY: Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 10th edition, p9.

-    Destan Kandemir, Roger Calantone, Rosanna Garcia, (2006), "An exploration of organizational factors in new product development success", Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, Vol. 21 Iss: 5, pp.300- 310.

-    Ding, L., Velicer, W.F. & Harlow, L.L.(1995), Effects of estimation methods, number of indicators per factors and improper solutions on structural equation modeling fir indices, Structural Equation Modeling, A Multidisciplinary Journal, Vol. 2, pp.119-143.           

-    Dougherty, D., & Hardy, C. (1996), Sustained product innovation in large, mature organizations: Overcoming innovation-to-organization problems, Academy of Management Journal, 39(5), 1120-1153.

-    Gonza´lez, F.J.M. & Palacios, T.M.B.(2002), The effect of new product development techniques on new product success in Spanish firms, Industrial Marketing Management 31, 261– 271.

-    Gotteland, D. & Haon, C.(2010), The Relationship between Market Ori­entation and New Product Performance: The Forgotten Role of Development Team Diversity, M@n@gement,  Vol. 13 No. 5, 366-381.

-    Greve, H. R. (2007), Exploration and exploitation in product innovation. Industrial and Corporate Change, 16(5), 945–975.

-    Harmancioglu, N., Droge, C., & Calantone, R. (2009), Strategic fit to resources versus NPD execution proficiencies: What are their roles in determining success? Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 37(3), 266–282.

-    Henard, D. H., & Szymanski, D. M. (2001), Why some new products are more successful than others, Journal ofMarketing Research, 38 (3), 362–75.

-    Ho, Y-C. & Tsai, C-T.(2011), Comparing ANFIS and SEM in linear and nonlinear forecasting of new product development performance, Expert Systems with Applications, 38, 6498–6507.

-    Hsieh, M.H., Tsai, K.H., Wang, J.R.,(2008), The moderating effects of market orientation and launch proficiency on the product advantage-performance relationship. Industrial Marketing Management, 37 (5), 580–592.

-    Im, S., & Workman, J. P., Jr. (2004), Market orientation, creativity, and new product performance in high-technology firms. Journal of Marketing, 68(4), 114–132.

-    Jifeng Mu, Gang Peng, Yi Tan, (2007), "New product development in Chinese SMEs: Key success factors from a managerial perspective", International Journal of Emerging Markets, Vol.2 Iss: 2, pp.123-143.

-    Kettunen, J., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Degraeve, Z. & De Reyck, B. (2015), New product development flexibility in a competitive environment, European Journal of Operational Research, 244(3), 892-904.

-    Kim, B. & Kim, J.(2009), Structural factors of NPD (new product development) team for manufacturability, International Journal of Project Management,  (27)7, 690-702

-    Kiran, T.R. & Rajput, S.P.S.(2011), An effectiveness model for an indirect evaporative cooling (IEC) system: Comparison of artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and fuzzy inference system (FIS) approach, Applied Soft Computing, 11(4), 3525-3533.

-    Kleinschmidt, E.J., de Bretani, U., Salomo, S.,(2007), Performance of global new product development programs: A resource-based view. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 24(5),419-441.

-    Langerak, F. & Hultink, E.J. ( 2005), The Impact of New Product Development Acceleration Approaches on Speed and Profitability: Lessons for Pioneers and Fast Followers, Ieee Transactions On Engineering Management, 52(1), 30-42.      

-    Lisboa, A., Skarmeas, D., & Lages, C. (2011), Entrepreneurial orientation, exploitative and explorative capabilities, and performance outcomes in export markets: A resourcebased approach. Industrial Marketing Management, 40(8), 1274–1284.

-    Little, A. D. (1991), The Arthur d Little Survey on the Product innovation process, Cambridge. MA.

-    Lohlin, J.C.(1992), Latent variables Models: An introduction to factor, path and structural analysis(2nd ed.), Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum associated, Inc.

-    Lynn, G.S., Abel, K.D., Valentine, W.S. & Wright, R.C.(1999), Key Factors in Increasing Speed to Market and Improving New Product Success Rates, Industrial Marketing Management, Vol. 28, Issue 4, pp. 319-326.

-    Marmier, F., Deniaud, L.F. & Gourc, D. (2014), Strategic decision-making in NPD projects according to risk: Application to satellites design projects, Computers in Industry 65,1107–1114

-    Millson, M.R. & Wilemon, D.(2005), Driving new product success in the electrical equipment manufacturing industry, Technovation 26, 1268–1286.

-    Morgan, R. E., & Berthon, P. (2008), Market orientation, generative learning, and innovation strategy and business performance inter-relationships in bioscience firms. Journal of Management Studies, 45(8), 1329–1353.

-    O'Cass, A., Heirati, N. & Viet Ngo, L.(2014), Achieving new product success via the synchronization of exploration and exploitation across multiple levels and functional areas, Industrial Marketing Management xxx, xxx–xxx.

-    Oehmen, J., Olechowski, A., Kenley, C.R. & Ben-Daya, M.(2014), Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs, Technovation,  34 ( 8),  441-453.

-    Oh, J., Yang, J. & Lee, S.(2012), Managing uncertainty to improve decision-making in NPD portfolio management with a fuzzy expert system,Expert Systems with Applications,(39)10,9868-9885

-    Peng, D. X., Schroeder, R. G., & Shah, R. (2008), Linking routines to operations capabilities: A new perspective. Journal of Operations Management, 26(6), 730–748.

-    Penrose, E. (1995), Foreword to the third edition. In E. Penrose, The Theory of the Growth of the Firm (3rd ed.). Oxford: Oxford University Press.

-    Petersen, K.J., Handfield, R.B., Ragatz, G.L., (2005), Supplier integration into new product development: coordinating product, process, and supply chain design. Journal of Operations Management, 23 (3–4), 371–388.

-    Reid, M. & Brady, E.(2012), Improving firm performance through NPD: The role of market orientation, NPD orientation and the NPDprocess, Australasian Marketing Journal (AMJ),  (20)4,  235-241.

-    Rindfleisch, A., & Moorman, C. (2001), The acquisition and utilization of information in new product alliances: A strength-of-ties perspective. Journal of Marketing, 65, 1–18 (April).

-    Rubera, G., Ordanini, A., & Calantone, R. J. (2012), Whether to integrate R&D and marketing: The effect of firm competence. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 29(5), 766–783

-    Sheng, S., Zheng Zhou, K. & Lessassy, L.(2013), NPD speed vs. innovativeness: The contingent impact of institutional and market environments, Journal of Business Research, 66, 2355–2362.

-    Slater, S.(1993), Competing in high-velocity markets. Ind Mark Manage, 22.

-    Song, M. & Di Benedetto, C.A.(2008), Supplier’s involvement and success of radical new product development in new ventures, Journal of Operations Management 26, 1–22.

-    SubbaNarasimha, P. N.; Arinze, B.; Anandarajan, M. (2000), The Predictive Accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks and Multiple Regression in The case of skewed data: Exploration of Some Issues. Expert Systems with Applications, 19, 117-123

-    Sun, H., & Wing, W. C. (2005), Critical success factors for new product development in the Hong Kong toy industry, Technovation. 25, 293-303.

-    Suwannaporn, P., & Speece, M. W. (2010), Assessing new product development success factors in the Thai food industry, British Food Journal, 112(4), 364-386.

-    Takeuchi H, Nonaka I. (1986), The new new product development game. Harv Bus Rev, 64,137– 46.

-    Ulrich, K.T. and Eppinger, S.D., (2004), Product design and development. 3rd ed. NewYork: McGraw Hill.

-    Verworn, B.(2009), A structural equation model of the impact of the fuzzy front end on the success of new product development, Research Policy 38, 1571–1581.

-    Wang, W-P.(2009), Evaluating new product development performance by fuzzy linguistic computing, Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 9759–9766.