Does Agriculture Price Index Respond to Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Iran?

International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development

مقاله 2، دوره 7، شماره 4، اسفند 2017، صفحه 407-413   

نوع مقاله: Research Article

نویسندگان

Mohammad Abdi Seyyedkolaee^{* 1}؛ Amir Mansour Tehranchian²؛ Ahmad Jafari Samimi³؛ Seyyed Mojtaba Mojaverian⁴

¹Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Iran

²Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Iran

³Professor at Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran

⁴Assistant Professor at Department of Agricultural Economic, Sari, University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

چکیده

Since some raw materials, semi manufactured, intermediate and capital goods in agricultural sector are imported, the exchange rate fluctuations can affect the cost price of products in this sector. Recently, we are facing considerable fluctuations in exchange rate that has an important impact on all sectors including the agriculture. As a result of an increase in import prices in agricultural raw materials, the exchange rate fluctuates. In other words, this relationship is strengthened by lower domestic supply due to the stimulation of the exports of agricultural products induced by an increase in exchange rate. The present study deals with the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on agricultural price index in Iran using MGARCH method. The results show that the past shocks of exchange rate have a positive impact on agriculture price index at the 1% significance level. Moreover, despite the fact that the current fluctuations of agriculture price index do not relate to its past fluctuations, the past fluctuations of exchange rate have a positive impact on current fluctuations of exchange rate.

کلیدواژه‌ها

agriculture sector؛ exchange rate؛ Iran’s economic؛ MGARCH method

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