To Investigate Of Change in Waves Height under the influence of climate change using Artificial neural network and wavelet

Journal of Water Science & Engineering

مقاله 1، دوره 2، شماره 5، آذر 2012، صفحه 7-20   

نوع مقاله: Original Article

نویسندگان

G Mansuri Vajari^{* 1}؛ A Shamsaei²؛ B Taghian³

¹Department of Civi Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

²Department of Civil Engineeing, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran,Iran.

³Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran,Iran.

چکیده

Prediction of the waves’ specifications that is one of the key factors effective on transformation of
coasts, production of renewable energies and design of marine structures, has always been importante.
Height of the waves is one of the most important and effective parameters of the wave. Different
factors are effective in variation of the waves’ height. In this research, variation in waves height under
change of universal climate and heating – that as one of the consequences of collection of greenhouse
gases,isconsideredas one of the most important environmental challenges in the world – has been
studied. The Effect of weather changes in variation of waves height using the ecological data gained
from CGCM2 Model that is one of the types of GCM Models, was investigated under two scripts: A2
and B2. In order to predict the waves height using the step by step regression method out of weather
variants stimulated in CGCM2 Ecological Model, those sets of variants that had the most correlation
with variation of waves height, have been selected. Two ANN and DWNN Models were made in order
to study the relationship between the variants of climate and waves height, and DWNN Model that is a
combination of ANN Model and Wavelet Theory, showed better and more accurate results. The results
for years 2089 to 2100 express an increase from 10 to 46 cm at minimum of daily average of waves
height and also increase from 10 to 36 cm at maximum of daily average of wave, gained in the region
of Chabahar. With consideration to noticeable increase of average of waves height, this subject must
be considered in different affairs such as management of coastal regions.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Ecological Scripts؛ Variation in Waves Height؛ Neural network؛ Wavelet؛ DWNN

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