River Discharge Time Series Prediction by Chaos Theory

Journal of Water Science & Engineering

مقاله 6، دوره 2، شماره 6، اسفند 2012، صفحه 77-89   

نوع مقاله: Original Article

نویسندگان

A Pour Moghadam¹؛ E Marufinia^{* 2}؛ A Shamsaei¹

¹Department of Civil Engineering, Water Group, Mahabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran.

²Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده

The application of chaos theory in hydrology has been gaining considerable interest in recent years.
Based on the chaos theory, the random seemingly series can be attributed to deterministic rules. The
dynamic structures of the seemingly complex processes, such as river flow variations, might be better
understood using nonlinear deterministic chaotic models than the stochastic ones. In this paper,
chaotic behavior of the daily river discharge time series from the BarandozChay, fromSeptember,1983
to August, 2009 is investigated. To reconstruct phase space, the time delay and embedding dimension
are needed and for this purpose, Average Mutual Information (AMI) and algorithm of False Nearest
Neighbors (FNN) wereused. Correlation Dimension method was applied for investigating chaotic
behavior of daily discharge. The delay time and optimum-embedding dimension were obtained 66 and
4 respectively. The low amount of correlation dimension (d=3.1) represents the chaotic behavior of
Barandoz river discharge time series.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Correlation dimension؛ delay time؛ Chaos theory؛ river discharge؛ Barandozriver

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