Effect of Temporary and Permanent Shocks of Total Factor Productivity on the Demand for Agricultural Imports in Iran

International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development

مقاله 5، دوره 9، شماره 2، شهریور 2019، صفحه 135-147   

نوع مقاله: Research Article

نویسندگان

Zahra Tavakoli¹؛ Sedigheh Nabieian^{* 1}؛ Mohammadreza Zare Mehrjerdi²؛ Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaei³

¹Assistant Professor in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, ShahidBahonar University of Kerman

²Associate Professor in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, ShahidBahonar University of Kerman

³Professor in Economics, Faculty of Economics, ShahidBahonar University of Kerman

چکیده

Economic theories show that the direction and magnitude of the fluctuations of economic variables depend on the type and magnitude of the shocks they are faced with. Various reasons are noted for fluctuations in demands for imports, including productivity shocks. Accordingly, this research was aimed at identifying the effects of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks of the agricultural sector on the demand for agricultural imports during the period 1982-2014. These shocks were divided by the Blanchard-Quah technique into two groups: permanent and temporary. Then, the effects of shocks on agricultural imports were studied by the Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) Method. The results showed that, in the short and longrun, temporary and permanent TFP shocks of the agricultural sector have had a significant effect on the demand for agricultural imports, and the effect of temporary shocks was stronger than the effect of permanent ones. Therefore, if the policymakers seek to reduce the demand for agricultural imports, the agricultural TFP must continuously be incremented.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Blanchard-Quah technique؛ Productivity shocks؛ Demand for agricultural imports؛ Total Factor Productivity in Agricultural Sector

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