A ‎M‎odel of Coronavirus Pandemic Spread with Lockdown and Quarantine

International Journal of Mathematical Modelling & Computations

مقاله 5، دوره 10، 3 (SUMMER) - شماره پیاپی 39، آذر 2020، صفحه 161-177   

نوع مقاله: Full Length Article

نویسنده

Dejen Ketema Mamo^*

Department of Mathematics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia.

چکیده

In this work, a researcher develop $SHEIQRD$ (Susceptible-Stay at home-Exposed-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) coronavirus pandemic spread model. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated and analyzed. The basic reproductive number $R_0$ is derived and its sensitivity analysis is done. COVID-19 pandemic spread is die out when $R_0leq 1$ and its persist in the community whenever $R_0>1$. More than $10%$ of lockdown or home quarantine, above $50%$ and $30%$ identification and isolation of expose and infected individuals respectively, and reduction home quarantine return rate(less than $10%$) can be mitigates the pandemics. Finally, theoretical analysis and numerical results are consistent.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Coronavirus disease؛ Lockdown؛ Isolation؛ Theoretical analysis؛ Numerical simulation