Forecasting time and place of earthquakes using a Semi-Markov model (with case study in Tehran province)

Journal of Industrial Engineering International

دوره 8، شماره 1، فروردین 2012   

نویسنده

Ramin Sadeghian

Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Industrial Engineering Faculty, Tehran, Iran

چکیده

The paper examines the application of semi-Markov models to the phenomenon of earthquakes in Tehran
province. Generally, earthquakes are not independent of each other, and time and place of earthquakes are related
to previous earthquakes; moreover, the time between earthquakes affects the pattern of their occurrence; thus, this
occurrence can be likened to semi-Markov models. In our work, we divided the province of Tehran into six regions
and grouped the earthquakes regarding their magnitude into three classes. Using a semi-Markov model, it
proceeds to predict the likelihood of the time and place of occurrence of earthquakes in the province.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Semi-Markov model؛ Earthquake occurrence؛ Forecasting؛ Transition matrix