Development of an evolutionary fuzzy expert system for estimating future behavior of stock price

Journal of Industrial Engineering International

مقاله 3، دوره 13، شماره 1، خرداد 2017   

نویسندگان

Azam Goodarzi¹؛ Amirhossein Amiri^{* 1}؛ Shervin Asadzadeh²؛ Farhad Mehmanpazir³؛ Shahrokh Asadi^{* 4}

¹Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

²Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran

³Department of Industrial Engineering, South-Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

⁴Faculty of Engineering, Farabi Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

چکیده

The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a “data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system” (DEFES) approach to estimate the behavior of stock price. This tool is developed in seven-stage architecture. Data mining is used in three stages to reduce the complexity of the whole data space. The first stage, noise filtering, is used to make our raw data clean and smooth. Variable selection is second stage; we use stepwise regression analysis to choose the key variables been considered in the model. In the third stage, K-means is used to divide the data into sub-populations to decrease the effects of noise and rebate complexity of the patterns. At next stage, extraction of Mamdani type fuzzy rule-based system will be carried out for each cluster by means of genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy. In the fifth stage, we use binary genetic algorithm to rule filtering to remove the redundant rules in order to solve over learning phenomenon. In the sixth stage, we utilize the genetic tuning process to slightly adjust the shape of the membership functions. Last stage is the testing performance of tool and adjusts parameters. This is the first study on using an approximate fuzzy rule base system and evolutionary strategy with the ability of extracting the whole knowledge base of fuzzy expert system for stock price forecasting problems. The superiority and applicability of DEFES are shown for International Business Machines Corporation and compared the outcome with the results of the other methods. Results with MAPE metric and Wilcoxon signed ranks test indicate that DEFES provides more accuracy and outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a superior tool for stock price forecasting problems.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Data mining . Fuzzy expert system . Stock price forecasting . Noise filtering . Genetic algorithm . Evolutionary strategy