Evaluation the profitability of dynamic investment projects by using ordered fuzzy numbers

Advances in Mathematical Finance and Applications

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 16 دی 1399  

نوع مقاله: Research Paper

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/amfa.2020.1899950.1425

نویسندگان

Reza Ehtesham Rasi ¹؛ jamil Jalilian²؛ Mirfeiz Fallah Shams³

¹Qazvin

²Ph.D Student ,Department of Industrial Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

³Associate Professor, Iran, Tehran, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch, Finance department.

چکیده

The purpose of this paper is to provide a new approach to incorporating uncertainty into assessing the profitability of investment projects. In the real world, the capital budgeting problem is accompanied by uncertainty and risk associated dealing with imprecise data. The major contribution of this research is the development of a novel approach to evaluating the profitability of an investment project in uncertainty condition. At first, we presented a new discount method that can be used by investors when they wants to be able to make an investment decision. That is, we developed a new method to evaluate the profitability of investment projects by or-dered fuzzy net present value (OFNPV). In addition, ordered fuzzy numbers (OFN) are used to describe the dynamics of changes of the defined investment parameters in the assumed time horizon. By using ordered fuzzy numbers, we develop an effective tool for assessing the profitability of investment projects. This assessment tool not only enables decision-makers to decide under uncertainty conditions whether or not a given investment project should be carried out or rejected, but also facilitates selecting the most effective project, e.g. a project with the most expected probability of success.

کلیدواژه‌ها

investment projects؛ profitability؛ fuzzy؛ capital budgeting؛ dynamic