تبیین شتاب قیمت سهام برنده در ایران

پیشرفت های مالی و سرمایه گذاری

دوره 2، شماره 3، شهریور 1400، صفحه 161-131   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/afi.2022.1945244.1065

نویسندگان

مهدی الهائی سحر¹؛ رضوان حجازی^{* 2}؛ اله کرم صالحی³؛ حسین ملتفت⁴

¹گروه حسابداری، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران

²گروه حسابداری، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران/گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه خاتم، تهران، ایران

³گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد مسجدسلیمان، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، مسجدسلیمان، ایران

⁴گروه حسابداری، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران/دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

اخیراً شناخت رفتارهای خلاف قاعده در بازارهای مالی، فرض کارایی را شدیداً به چالش کشانده است. شتاب قیمت یکی از آن خلاف قاعده‌هایی است که فاما و فرنچ (1996) از آن به عنوان "بازده کوتاه‌مدت توضیح داده نشده" یاد کردند. هدف این پژوهش الگوسازی پدیده شتاب سهام برنده در بازار سرمایه ایران می‌باشد. به منظور توضیح پدیده مذکور از روش کیفی نظریه برخاسته از داده و ابزار مصاحبه استفاده گردید. بدین صورت، با 32 نفر از صاحب‌نظران فعال در دو طیف حرفه‌ای و دانشگاهی در سال 1397 مصاحبه‌های عمیق انجام گرفت. در این پژوهش داده‌های گردآوری شده در سه مرحله کد‌گذاری، سپس نتایح به صورت الگوی پارادایمی کمی شده با روش رتبه بندی سلسله مراتب فازی و روایت یک داستان ارایه گردیده است. یافته‌های پژوهش، عوامل عِلی شتاب را در سطح رفتاری؛ عوامل بستری را در سه سطح جامعه، اقتصاد کلان و بازار؛ عوامل مداخله‌گر را در چهار سطح اقتصاد جهانی، اقتصاد کلان، بازار و شرکت؛ راهبردها نیز در چهار سطح جامعه، اقتصاد کلان، بازار و نهاد‌های سرمایه‌گذاری و مالی و پیامدها در سطح بازار، کشف کردند.

نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد به‌منظور توسعه بازار نباید به پدیده شتاب سهام برنده به‌عنوان یک فرصت سفته‌بازی نگاه کرد بلکه خلاف قاعده‌ای است که از نظر خبرگان با راهبردهای ارایه شده، می ‌بایست تعدیل گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شتاب قیمت سهام برنده؛ نظریه برخاسته از داده؛ بازار سرمایه ایران

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