Multiple Linear Regression Model for Prediction of Pupils Exposure to PM2.5

Anthropogenic Pollution

دوره 6، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 10، مرداد 2022، صفحه 75-83   

نوع مقاله: ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/ap.2022.1951375.1127

نویسندگان

Yasser Baharfar¹؛ Mahmoud Mohammadyan^{* 2}؛ Faramarz Moattar¹؛ Parvin Nassiri¹؛ Mohammad Hasan Behzadi³

¹Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

²Health Sciences Research Center, Faculty of Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran

³Department of Statistics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده

Particulate matter, as one of the biggest problems of air pollution in metropolises, is the cause of many respiratory, lung and cardiovascular diseases, which timely awareness and announcement can reduce these adverse effects on human health. Therefore, considering that children are more exposed and more sensitive to this pollution, this research was conducted to introduce an evaluated mathematical model to predict PM2.5 concentration levels, indoor selected preschools located in one of centeral district of Tehran (district 6), using determination of related factors to PM2.5 concentration. Classroom environmental information, Meteorological information and urban fixed monitoring stations data were collected through measuring Indoor and outdoor classroom PM2.5 concentrations using direct-reading instruments, adjusted questionnaire and conducted organizations, simultaneously. Results showed the spring and autumn had the lowest and highest indoor and outdoor concentrations (17.1 and 20.5 μg m-3 & 48.7 and 78 μg m-3respectively). Multiple linear regression model was introduced by statistical analysis and the results of indoor PM2.5 concentration predictions were compared and evaluated with measured data. The results of introduced this model, consisting of identifying seven main factors affecting the mean concentrations of indoor PM2.5, including outdoor PM2.5, the number of pupils, ambient temperature, wind speed, wind direction and open area of the doors and windows, showed that it has good accuracy (R2 = 0.705) and significantly correlated(p < 0.001). The Multiple Linear Regression Model can be used with good accuracy to predict indoor PM2.5 concentration of preschool classes in Tehran.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Multiple Linear Regression؛ PM2.5؛ Preschool؛ Tehran air quality

مراجع

Amato F, Rivas I, Viana M et al (2014) Sources of indoor and outdoor PM_2.5 concentrations in primary schools. Sci Total Environ. 490:757-65.

ASTM (2011) Standard Practice for Planning the Sampling of the Ambient Atmosphere, American Society for Testing and Materials, Pennsylvania (Reapproved 2005).

Carrion-Matta A, Kang C.M, Gaffin J.M et al (2019) Classroom indoor PM_2.5 sources and exposures in inner-city schools, Environment International. 131: 104968.

Cavaleiro Rufo J, Madureira J, Paci^encia I et al (2016) Children exposure to indoor ultrafine particles in urban and rural school environments. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 23(14): 13877-13885.

Chen H, Burnett R.T, Kwong J.C et al (2013) Risk of incident diabetes in relation to long-term exposure to fine particulate matter in Ontario, Canada. Environ. Health Perspect. 121(7): 804–810.

Chen J, Hoek G (2020) Long-term exposure to PM and all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ. Int. 143:105974.

Cho S, Lee G, Park D, Kim M (2021) Study on Characteristics of Particulate Matter Resuspension in School Classroom through Experiments Using a Simulation Chamber: Influence of Humidity. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 18(6):2856.

Choo C.P, Jalaludin J, Hamedon T.R, Adam N.M (2015) Preschools’ indoor air quality and respiratory health symptoms among preschoolers in Selangor. Procedia environmental sciences. 30: 303-308.

Cooper N, Green D, Guo Y, Vardoulakis S (2020) School children's exposure to indoor fine particulate matter. Environmental Research Letters. 15 (11).

Cunha-Lopes I, Martins V, Faria T, Correia C, Almeida S.M (2019) Children's exposure to sized-fractioned particulate matter and black carbon in an urban environment. Build Environ. 155.

Cyrys J, Pitz M, Bischof W, Wichmann H, Heinrich J (2004) Relationship between indoor and outdoor levels of fine particle mass, particle number concentrations and black smoke under different ventilation conditions. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol. 14: 275–283.

Di Virgilio G, Evans J. P, Blake S. A. P et al (2019) Climate change increases the potential for extreme wildfires. Geophysical Research Letters. 46: 8517– 8526.

Diapouli E, Manousakas M, Vratolis S et al (2017) Evolution of air pollution source contributions over one decade, derived by PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 source apportionment in two metropolitan urban areas in Greece. Atmos Environ. 164: 416-430.

Elbayoumi M, Ramli N.A, Yusof N.F.F.M, Madhoun W.A (2015) Seasonal variation in schools’ indoor air environments and health symptoms among students in an Eastern Mediterranean climate. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal. 21(1):184-204.

Fromme H, Diemer J, Dietrich S et al (2008) Chemical and morphological properties of particulate matter (PM₁₀, PM_2.5) in school classrooms and outdoor air. Atmos Environ. 42: 6597-6605.

Gaffin J, Petty C, Hauptman M et al (2017) Modeling indoor particulate exposures in inner-city school classrooms. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 27(5):451-457.

Goyal R, Khare M (2009) Indoor-outdoor concentrations of RSPM in classroom of a naturally ventilated school building near an urban traffic roadway. Atmos Environ. 43: 6026-6038.

Guo Y (2019) All-cause mortality and long-term exposure to low level air pollution in the ‘45 and up study’ cohort, Sydney, Australia, 2006–2015. Environ Int. 126. 762–70.

Halek F, Kavousi A, Hassani F (2009) Evaluation of Indoor-Outdoor Particle Size Distribution in Tehran’s Elementary Schools. World Academy Sci Eng Tech. 57:463-466.

Halek F, Kianpour-Rad M, Kavousirahim A (2010) Seasonal variation in ambient PM mass and number concentrations (case study: Tehran, Iran). Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 169 (1): 501-507.

Halek F, Kianpour-Rad M, Kavousirahim A (2013) Parametric evaluation of indoor particulate matters in elementary schools in the central parts of Tehran. Indoor and Built Environment. 22(3):580-585.

Han Y, Qi M, Chen Yet al (2015) Influences of ambient air PM₂.₅ concentration and meteorological condition on the indoor PM₂.₅ concentrations in a residential apartment in Beijing using a new approach. Environmental pollution. 205: 307-14.

Hänninen O.O, Lebret E, Ilacqua V et al (2004) Infiltration of ambient PM_2.5 and levels of indoor generated non-ETS PM_2.5 in residences of four European cities. Atmos Environ. 38: 6411–6423.

Hassanvand M.S, Naddafi K, Faridi S et al (2014) Indoor/outdoor relationships of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and PM₁ mass concentrations and their water-soluble ions in a retirement home and a school dormitory. Atmospheric Environment. 82: 375-382.

Hoek G, Krishnan R, Beelen R et al (2013) Long-term air pollution exposure and cardio- respiratory mortality: A review. Environ. Health. 12(1):43.

Jalilzadeh R, Rahmani MS.(2021) Risk assessment of suspended particles using EFMEA technique and TOPSIS method in District 9 of Tehran Municipality. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. 23(2):275-94.

Jung CC, Lin WY, Hsu NYet al (2020) Development of Hourly Indoor PM_2.5 Concentration Prediction Model: The Role of Outdoor Air, Ventilation, Building Characteristic, and Human Activity. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 17(16):5906.

Kapić Z (2021) Multiple Linear Regression Model for Predicting PM_2.5 Concentration in Zenica. In: Avdaković S., Volić I., Mujčić A., Uzunović T., Mujezinović A. (eds) Advanced Technologies, Systems, and Applications V. IAT 2020. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems. 142.

Khajeh Hoseini L, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R, Mahmoudie A, Mohammadi Rouzbehani M, Sabz Alipour S.(2021) Prioritization of Effective Strategic Parameters in the Removal of VOCs from the ROP System by Using AHP: A Case Study of Abadan Oil Refinery. Journal of Health Sciences & Surveillance System. 9(3):199-205.

Khajeh Hoseini L, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R, Mohammadi Rouzbahani M.(2020b) Prioritization of Air Pollutant Removal (VOC) Scenarios from Refinery ROP Units Using Artificial Neural Network Model (Case Study: Abadan Oil Refinery). Journal of Environmental Health Enginering. 2020 Nov 10;8(1):1-6.

Khajeh Hoseini L, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh, R, Mohammadi Rouzbahani M, Sabz Alipour  S. (2020a). 'Planning the decision-making process and strategic management of ROP wastewater treatment system in Abadan Oil Refinery with a combined benefit of SWOT and AHP', Journal of Advances in Environmental Health Research, 8(4), pp. 250-259. doi: 10.22102/jaehr.2020.252977.1193

Li J, Wang L (2017) The research of PM_2.5 concentrations model based on regression calculation model. In: AIP Conference Proceedings. 1794, 030005.

Li L.N, Gong X.P, Dai L.C, Zhan X.H (2013) The Regression Models of PM_2.5 and Other Air Pollutants in Wuhan. AMR. 864–867: 1356–1359.

Lin Ch, Peng Ch (2010) Characterization of Indoor PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and Ultrafine Particles in Elementary School Classrooms: A Review. Environ Eng Sci. 27(11): 915-922.

Lv Y, Wang H, Wei S, Zhang L, Zhao Q (2017) The correlation between indoor and outdoor particulate matter of different building types in Daqing, China. Procedia Engineering. 205: 360-367.

MacNaughton P, Eitland E, Kloog I et al (2017) Impact of Particulate Matter Exposure and Surrounding “Greenness” on Chronic Absenteeism in Massachusetts Public Schools. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 14(2):207.

Massey D, Kulshrestha A, Masih J, Taneja A (2012) Seasonal trends of PM₁₀, PM_5.0, PM_2.5 and PM_1.0 in indoor and outdoor environments of residential homes located in North-Central India. Building and Environment. 47: 223-231.

Mazaheri M, Lin W, Clifford S et al (2019) Characteristics of school children's personal exposure to ultrafine particles in Heshan, Pearl River Delta, China - A pilot study. Environ Int. 132:105134.

Mendoza D, Liou T.D, Pirozzi C.S, Zhang Y, Paine R (2019) The Impact of Fine Particulate Matter on School Absences. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. 199:A6015.

Mohammadyan M, Alizadeh-Larimi A, Etemadinejad S et al (2017) Particulate air pollution at schools: indoor-outdoor relationship and determinants of indoor concentrations. Aerosol and Air Quality Research. 17: 857-864.

Mohammadyan M, Keyvani S, Bahrami A (2019) Assessment of indoor air pollution exposure in urban hospital microenvironments. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health. 12(2): 151-159.

Mohammadyan M, Shabankhani B (2013) Indoor PM1, PM2.5, PM10 and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations in primary schools in Sari, Iran. Archives of Industrial Hygiene and Toxicology. 64(3):371-377.

Mönkkönen P (2011) Observations of urban aerosols in India. URL: http://ethesis.helsinki.fi/julkaisut/mat/fysik/vk/monkkonen. Accessed March 20, 2011.

Mostofie, N., Fataei, E., Kheikhah Zarkesh M.M., Hezhabrpour Gh. (2014) Assessment centers and distribution centers dust(case study: NorthWest, Iran), International Journal of Farming and Allied Sciences, 3(2):235-243.

Noor N, Jalaludin J, Choo C (2015) Indoor Air Quality and Respiratory Health among Malay Preschool Children in Selangor. BioMed Research International. 10.1155/2015/248178.

Nyarku M, Buonanno G, Ofosu F et al (2019) Schoolchildren's personal exposure to ultrafine particles in and near Accra, Ghana. Environment international. 133. 105223.

Oliveira M, Slezakova K, Delerue-Matos C (2017) Indoor air quality in preschools (3- to 5-year-old children) in the Northeast of Portugal during spring–summer season: pollutants and comfort parameters. J Toxicol Environ Health A. 80(13-15):740-755.

Park H.K, Cheng K.C, Tetteh A.O et al (2017) Effectiveness of air purifier on health outcomes and indoor particles in homes of children with allergic diseases in Fresno, California: a pilot study. Journal of Asthma. 54(4):341-346.

Pekey B, Bozkurt Z, Pekey H et al (2010) Indoor/outdoor concentrations and elemental composition of PM10/PM2.5 in urban/industrial areas of Kocaeli City, Turkey. Indoor Air. 20: 112–125.

Peng Z, Deng W, Tenorio R (2017) Investigation of indoor air quality and the identification of influential factors at primary schools in the north of China. Sustainability. 9(7).

Raazi Tabari MR, Sabzalipour S, Peyghambarzadeh SM, Jalilzadeh R. Vapor Loss of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) from the Shipping Port of Abadan Petroleum Refinery. Pollution. 2020 Dec 1;6(4):863-78.

Rivas I, Viana M, Moreno T et al (2014) Child exposure to indoor and outdoor air pollutants in schools in Barcelona, Spain. Environment International. 69: 200-212.

Rückerl R, Schneider A, Breitner S, Cyrys J, Peters A (2011) Health effects of particulate air pollution: A review of epidemiological evidence. Inhalation toxicology. 23: 555-92.

Sadigh, A., Fataei, E., Arzanloo, M., Imani, A.A.(2021). Bacteria bioaerosol in the indoor air of educational microenvironments: Measuring exposures and assessing health effects. Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering, 19, 1635-1642.

Schraufnagel DE, Balmes JR, Cowl CT et al (2019) Air Pollution and Noncommunicable Diseases: A Review by the Forum of International Respiratory Societies' Environmental Committee, Part 1: The Damaging Effects of Air Pollution. Chest. 155(2):409-416.

Schraufnagel DE, Balmes JR, Cowl CT et al (2019) Air Pollution and Noncommunicable Diseases: A Review by the Forum of International Respiratory Societies' Environmental Committee, Part 2: Air Pollution and Organ Systems. Chest. 155(2):417-426.

Sekhavati E, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R. (2021). 'Investigation and Optimization of Air Pollution Risk by a Multi-criteria Decision Making Method Using Fuzzy TOPSIS: A Case Study of Construction Workers', Journal of Advances in Environmental Health Research, 9(4), pp. 265-276. doi: 10.32598/JAEHR.9.4.1229

Sekhavati E, Yengejeh RJ. Assessment Optimization of Safety and Health Risks Using Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique (Case Study: Construction Sites in the South of Iran). Journal of Environmental Health and Sustainable Development. 2021 Dec 28.

Sidra S, Ali Z, Ahmad Nasir Z, Colbeck I (2015) Seasonal variation of fine particulate matter in residential micro–environments of Lahore, Pakistan. Atmospheric Pollution Research. 6(5): 797-804.

Stranger M, Potgieter-Vermaak S, Van Grieken R (2008) Characterization of indoor air quality in primary schools in Antwerp, Belgium. Indoor Air. 18: 454-463.

Sun, Z, Liu C, Zhang Y (2019) Evaluation of a steady-state method to estimate indoor PM_2.5 concentration of outdoor origin. Build. Environ. 161: 106243.

Tabari MR, Sabzalipour S, Peyghambarzadeh SM, Jalilzadeh R.(2021) DISPERSION OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN THE VICINITY OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS STORAGE TANKS. Environmental Engineering & Management Journal (EEMJ).;20(7).

Taghizadeh F, Jonidi Jafari A, Kermani (2019) The trend of air quality index (AQI) in Tehran during (2011–2016). Journal of Air Pollution and Health. 4(3):187-192.

URL:https://www.amar.org.ir/english/Iran-at-a-glance/Tehran

Widder S.H, Haselbach L (2017) Relationship among Concentrations of Indoor Air Contaminants. Their Sources and Different Mitigation Strategies on Indoor Air Quality. Sustainability. 9:1149.

Www.amar.org.ir

Xu R, Qi X, Dai G et al (2020) A Comparison Study of Indoor and Outdoor Air Quality in Nanjing, China. Aerosol Air Qual Res. 20: 2128–2141.

Yang Z, Jialei S, Zhi G (2018) Ventilation and Air Quality in Student Dormitories in China: A Case Study during summer in Nanjing. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 15(7):1328.

Yousefian F, Faridi S, Azimi F et al (2020) Temporal variations of ambient air pollutants and meteorological influences on their concentrations in Tehran during 2012–2017. Scientific Reports. 10(1): 292.

Yu P, Xu R, Abramson MJ, Li S, Guo Y (2020) Bushfires in Australia: a serious health emergency under climate change. Lancet Planet Health. 4(1):e7-e8.

Yuhe Z, Guangfei Y, Xianneng L (2021) Indoor PM_2.5 concentrations and students’ behavior in primary school classrooms. Journal of Cleaner Production. 318: 128460.

Yushu X, Bingxue S, Tong W, Peiyi W (2010) Study on Particulate Matter Concentration in the Indoor Air of Classrooms in a Beijing Primary School. Adv Mater Res. 113: 1419-1423.

Załuska M, Gładyszewska-Fiedoruk K (2020) Regression Model of PM_2.5 Concentration in a Single-Family House. Sustainability. 12(15):5952.

Zhang Q, Zhu Y (2012) Characterizing ultrafine particles and other air pollutants at five schools in South Texas. Indoor Air. 22: 33–42.

Zhang L, Guo C, Jia X et al (2018) Personal exposure measurements of school-children to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in winter of 2013, Shanghai, China. PLOS ONE. 13(4): e0193586.

Zhao R, Gu X, Xue B, Zhang J, Ren W (2018) Short period PM_2.5 prediction based on multivariate linear regression model. PLoS One. 13(7):e0201011.