‎Why Linear (and Piecewise Linear) Models Often Successfully Describe Complex Non-Linear Economic‎ ‎and Financial Phenomena‎: ‎A~Fuzzy-Based Explanation

Transactions on Fuzzy Sets and Systems

مقاله 10، دوره 2، شماره 1، مرداد 2023، صفحه 147-157   

نوع مقاله: Original Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/tfss.2023.1972564.1054

نویسندگان

Hung T. Nguyen¹؛ Vladik Kreinovich^{* 2}

¹Department of Mathematical Sciences, New Mexico State University, Las Cruce, New Mexico, USA. and Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.

²Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas, USA.

چکیده

Economic and financial phenomena are highly complex and‎ ‎non-linear‎. ‎However‎, ‎surprisingly‎, ‎in many cases‎, ‎these phenomena‎ ‎are accurately described by linear models‎ -- ‎or‎, ‎sometimes‎, ‎by‎ ‎piecewise linear ones‎. ‎In this paper‎, ‎we show that fuzzy‎ ‎techniques can explain the unexpected efficiency of linear and‎ ‎piecewise linear models‎: ‎namely‎, ‎we show that a natural‎ ‎fuzzy-based precisiation of imprecise (``fuzzy'') expert knowledge‎ ‎often leads to linear and piecewise linear models‎.
‎We show this by applying invariance ideas to analyze which membership functions‎, ‎which fuzzy ``and''-operations (t-norms)‎, ‎and which‎ ‎fuzzy implication operations are most appropriate for applications to economics and finance‎.
 ‎We also discuss which expert-motivated nonlinear models should be‎ ‎used to get a more accurate description of economic and financial‎ ‎phenomena‎: ‎specifically‎, ‎we show that a natural next step is to add cubic‎ ‎terms to the linear (and piece-wise linear) expressions‎, ‎and‎, ‎in general‎, ‎to consider polynomial (and piece-wise polynomial) dependencies‎.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Linear models‎؛ ‎Piece-wise linear models‎؛ ‎Fuzzy logic‎؛ ‎Economics and finance‎

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