The Effects of Climate Change on Sugar Beet Yield with an Emphasis on Crop Production Risk in Iran

International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development

مقاله 2، دوره 13، شماره 1، خرداد 2023، صفحه 17-28   

نوع مقاله: Research Article

نویسندگان

Ali Sardar Shahraki^{* 1}؛ Neda Aliahmadi²؛ Nasim Safari³

¹Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

²Ph.D. Agriculture Economic, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

³PhD in Water Resources Management, Regional Water Company of Ardabil, Iran

چکیده

Climate change and the resulting changes in climatic parameters influence all agricultural activities. The present study aimed to explore the effect of climatic variables on sugar beet crop yield in two climates – cold climate and hot and arid climate – using the Just and Pope stochastic function. First, the most effective climatic variables on sugar beet yield were identified by the Feiveson algorithm and the Just and Pope function. Data stationarity test was applied to assess the stationarity of the included variables. The interrelationship of the dependent and independent variables was analyzed by the co-integration test. Finally, the coefficients of the Just and Pope function for sugar beet crop in two studied climates for the time period of 1998-2017 were estimated. The results of sugar beet yield function in cold regions show that sugar beet yield in cold regions was significantly influenced by acreage and maximum temperature at p < 0.10 level and by minimum temperature deviation, production lag, and trend at p < 0.01 level, but the variable of precipitation was significant in none of the levels. The estimation of the Just and Pope function for sugar beet crop in hot and arid regions indicates that the effects of maximum temperature, production lag, and trend are significant on sugar beet yield at p < 0.05 level, but the effects of acreage, precipitation deviation, and minimum temperature deviation were insignificant. Given temperature variations and unexpected precipitation, it is recommended to encourage sugar beet farmers to use crop insurance in order to mitigate local farmers’ risk and alleviate the damages of climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Climate change؛ Just and Pope function؛ production risk؛ sugar beet؛ yield function

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