شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‏های پیشگیری از جرم در محلات شهری تهران در راستای توسعۀ امنیت پایدار با استفاده از معادلات ساختاری فازی ؛ مورد پژوهی: منطقۀ 17 تهران

فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی نگرش های نو در جغرافیای انسانی

دوره 14، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 56، آذر 1401، صفحه 51-87   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

نویسندگان

شهرام سلطانی¹؛ عباس شیخ الاسلامی^{* 2}؛ عبدالرضا اصغری³

¹دانشجوی دکتری گروه حقوق جزا و جرم شناسی، واحد مشهد ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، مشهد ،ایران

²دانشیار گروه حقوق و جزا و جرم شناسی ، واحد مشهد ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، مشهد ، ایران

³استادیار ، گروه حقوق و جزا و جرم شناسی دانشگاه علوم رضوی، مشهد ، ایران

چکیده

گسترش روزافزون جمعیت در نقاط شهری کشورهای در حال توسعه به همراه ناکارآمدی برنامه‏های اجتماعی، اقتصادی و به ویژه عدالت اجتماعی پیامدهایی را به دنبال دارد که افزایش جرایم و بزهکاری‏ها یکی از مهم‏ترین آنها محسوب می‏شود. به همین دلیل تلاش برای توسعۀ امنیت پایدار شهری از طریق شناسایی عوامل مؤثر پیشگیری در جرم و روش‏های ارتقاء آن به یکی از چالش‏های قراروی برنامه‏‏ریزان ، مسئولین و محققان رشته‏های مرتبط با این موضوعات تبدیل شده است. هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی عوامل کلیدی مؤثر در راستای توسعۀ امنیت پایدار از طریق مدل پیشگیری از جرم در منطقۀ 17 شهر تهران می‏باشد. بر این اساس تعداد 48 زیرمتغیر عوامل اجتماعی-فرهنگی، اقتصادی، محیطی و نهادی مستخرج از مصاحبه‏های عمیق (گرندد تئوری) با 25 کارشناس در رشته‏های قضایی، انتظامی، جامعه‏شناسی و شهرسازی و تلفیق با ادبیات موجود بر اساس نظرات کارشناسان، شناسایی شد و این عوامل از طریق مدل معادلات ساختاری فازی (میک مک فازی زبانی) و نظرسنجی از 50 متخصص وزن‏دهی شد و سپس مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج بدست‏آمده، 10 زیر متغیر بیکاری، توسعۀ اجتماعی-اقتصادی، فقر و نابرابری، اعتیاد، رضایت از زندگی، آموزش اجتماعی، انسجام خانوادگی، مشارکت اجتماعی، شبکۀ معابر و دسترسی و آلودگی نور و روشنایی به عنوان عوامل کلیدی در پیشگیری از جرم انتخاب گردیدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

پیشگیری از جرم؛ توسعۀ امنیت پایدار؛ معادلات ساختاری فازی؛ منطقۀ 17 تهران

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