تحلیل تأثیر رشد شهرنشینی بر تغییر کاربری زمین در شهر تهران با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم

مطالعات جامعه شناسی

دوره 16، شماره 58، خرداد 1402، صفحه 171-196   

نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jss.2023.1976548.1529

نویسندگان

لیلا نصرالهی وسطی¹؛ محمدرضا جلیلوند^{* 2}

¹استادیار گروه علوم اجتماعی- جامعه شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات، علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران [e-mail]

²استادیار، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشکدگان فارابی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران ایران (نویسنده مسول) Email: [e-mail]

چکیده

شهرنشینی سریع منجر به تغییر در کاربری زمین در مناطق شهری شده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر شهرنشینی بر تغییر کاربری در شهر تهران با استفاده از تفکر سیستمی است تا بتوان به درک بهتری از پیامدهای شهرنشینی دست یافت. شهر یک سیستم پیچیده، باز، و پویا است که بررسی آن مستلزم یک رویکرد میان رشته_­ای می باشد. روش پویایی ­شناسی سیستم، این الزامات را برای پرداختن به شهر فراهم می­آورد. لذا مدلی دینامیکی طراحی شد که با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی­ شناسی سیستم مورد ارزیابی کمی قرار گرفت. این مطالعه نشان داد که با افزایش جمعیت شهر تهران، کاربری زمین­ های کشاورزی و باز به تدریج تا سال 1404 تغییر کرده و پیش بینی می­شود که زمین ­های با کاربری ساخت و ساز افزایش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شهرنشینی؛ کاربری زمین؛ برنامه ریزی شهری؛ مدلسازی؛ رویکرد سیستمی

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