تبیین پیشران های موثر بر تغییرات کاربری زمین پایدار با رویکرد آینده پژوهی(مطالعه موردی: کلان‌شهر تبریز)

برنامه ریزی و توسعه محیط شهری

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 09 اردیبهشت 1402

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/juepd.2023.1980996.1155

نویسندگان

باقر دست آهنین¹؛ مهسا فرامرزی اصل^{* 2}؛ میرسعید موسوی²

¹دانشجوی دکترای شهرسازی، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران

²استادیار گروه معماری و شهرسازی، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران.

چکیده

کاربری اراضی و مدیریت آن، یکی از محورهای مهم درزمینهٔ توسعه پایدار و حفظ منابع و بهره‌برداری صحیح از آن‌ها است ازآنجایی‌که روند سریع این تغییرات باعث تغییرات چشمگیری در کره زمین شده و سطح کاربری‌ها را متحول کرده و این توسعه منجر به از بین بردن محیط‌زیست طبیعی شده است، برنامه ریزان را بر آن داشته تا بامطالعه بر روی اراضی، علت این تغییرات را بررسی کنند و از نتایج به‌دست‌آمده برای شناخت راهکارهای مبارزه با این تغییرات مخرب بهره برند. با این رویکرد نوشتار حاضر می‌کوشد به تبیین پیشران‌های مؤثر بر تغییرات کاربری زمین پایدار با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی در کلان‌شهر تبریز بپردازد. پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ روش توصیفی - تحلیلی است. همچنین به لحاظ زمانی روش مقطعی  و به لحاظ ماهیت داده کمی است. باتوجه‌به نو بودن موضوع منابع به روش مرور روایتی از ادبیات موجود موردبررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج بر اساس جایگاه شاخص‌ها نشان داد، عملکرد و اثرگذاری آن‌ها در تغییرات کاربری زمین پایدار 12 شاخص به‌عنوان عوامل کلیدی شناسایی‌شده‌اند، که 5 عامل در هر دو آثار مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، با اندکی تفاوت در رتبه تکرار شده‌اند و 7 عامل در آثار غیرمستقیم جایگزین قرار داشته­اند. بر اساس نتایج تحلیلی، شاخص‌های رشد و توسعه شهری، جولان طبقه مالک، بازار زمین و مسکن، قوانین مالیات بر زمین و تغییرات کاربری اراضی شهری به میزان‌های 78، 76 و 75 بیشترین اثرگذاری را داشته‌اند. در مقابل شاخص‌های تشکیل بانک زمین، رانت بازی و تجاری‌سازی زمین شهری، ارزش زمین، انباشت سرمایه و ایجاد قطب رشد، اقتصاد غیرمولد رانتی به ترتیب با مقادیر 83، 78، 72، 68  بیشترین اثرپذیری را داشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

'توسعه پایدار"؛ "شاخص های کالبدی"؛ "تغییر کاربری زمین"؛ "آینده پژوهی"

مراجع

1. Abdollahi, A. A., khabazi, M., & dorani, Z. (2020). Modeling and Predicting Land Use Changes in Lahijan City With a sustainable development approach. Sustainable city, 2(4), 17-30. (In Persian).
2. Agyemang, F. S., & Morrison, N. (2018). Recognising the barriers to securing affordable housing through he land use planning system in Sub-Saharan Africa: A perspective from Ghana. Urban Studies, 55(12), 640-2659. https://doi.10.1177/0042098017724092.
3. Andriamihaja, O. R; Metz, F; Julie G. Z; Fischer, M; Messerli, P, (2021). Identifying agents of change for sustainable land governance. Land Use Policy, 100(3), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104882.
4. Ashlaghi, M. (2019), explaining the concept of place identity and its formation process in urban public spaces (case study: Tabriz city); Doctoral thesis, geography and urban planning, Zanjan University. (In Persian)
5. Azari M, Fanni Z, Kozegarkaleji L, Tavakolinia J, Heydari A. (2021), Investigating the role of driving forces in land use changes and the spatial evolution of the city with a futurology approach (Case study District 12 of Tehran). MJSP; 25 (2) :121-144. (In Persian).
6. Azarm, H, Bakhshoodeh, M; Mansour Z, (2022), Incorporating Land Use Changes and Pastoralists’ Behavior in Sustainable Rangeland Management: Evidence from Iran, Rangeland Ecology & Management, 80, 48-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2021.09.009.
7. Bac˘au, S., Domingo, D., Palka, G., Pellissier, L, Kienast, F, (2022). Integrating strategic planning intentions into land-change simulations: Designing and assessing scenarios for Bucharest. Sustain. Cities Soc. 76, 103446 https://doi.org/10/gn8pst.
8. Baig, M.F.; Mustafa, M.R.U.; Baig, I.; Takaijudin, H.B.; Zeshan, M.T. Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Changes and Future Predictions Using CA-ANN Simulation for Selangor, Malaysia. Water 2022, 14, 402. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030402.
9. Borhani, K., Rafiyan, M., & Meshkini, A. (2017). Land Use Change and Political Economy of Space: Developing a Theoretical- Integrated Model. Iranian Journal of Sociology, 18(3), 86-109. (In Persian)
10. Cui, J., Kong, X., Chen, J., Sun, J., Zhu, Y., (2021). Spatially Explicit Evaluation and Driving Factor Identification of Land Use Conflict in Yangtze River Economic Belt. Land 10, 43 https://doi.org/10/gj3whd.
11. Dadazade Seilabi, P., Rasoulzadeh, Z., & Tahmasebi Moghaddam, H. (2021). Measuring spatial justice in the spatial structure of Tabriz metropolis with emphasis on the spatial distribution of educational centers. Urban Environmental Planning and Development, 1(2), 35-50. (In Persian).
12. Domingo, D; Gaëtan P; Anna M.H, (2021), Effect of zoning plans on urban land-use change: A multi-scenario simulation for supporting sustainable urban growth, Sustainable Cities and Society, 69, 1-19. 102833. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102833.
13. Dong, G., Ge, Y., Jia, H., Sun, C., Pan, S., (2021). Land Use Multi-Suitability, Land Resource Scarcity and Diversity of Human Needs: A New Framework for Land Use Conflict Identification. Land. 10, 1003 https://doi.org/10/gnzmxw.
14. Hadyani, Z., & Hosseini, S. A. (2020). Analysis of the Most Important Factors Affecting the Failure of New Cities in Iran with the Foresight Approach (Case Study: Sadra New Town). Journal of Iran Futures Studies, 5(1), 49-79. (In Persian).
15. Hersperger, A. M., Gr˘adinaru, S. R., & Siedentop, S. (2020). Towards a better understanding of land conversion at the urban-rural interface: Planning intentions and the effectiveness of growth management. Journal of Land Use Science, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2020.1765426.
16. Hersperger, A. M., Oliveira, E., Pagliarin, S., Palka, G., Verburg, P., Bolliger, J., et al. (2018). Urban land-use change: The role of strategic spatial planning. Global Environmental Change Part A, 51, 32-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.05.001.
17. Hosseini Jonbazi, F. S., & sobhani, N. (2016). Evaluation of Urban Land Sustainable Development (Case Study: Sabzevar). Urban Management Studies, 7(24), 100-110. (In Persian).
18. Huang, D., Huang, J., & Liu, T. (2019). Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries. Land Use Policy, 82, 422-435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.12.028.
19. Jafari, F., Moazzeni, M., & Badali, A. (2020). Futures Study of Urban Land Use Change in Tabriz Metropolis. Spatial Planning, 10(2), 1-22. (In Persian).
20. Janin Rivolin, U. (2017). Global crisis and the systems of spatial governance and planning: A European comparison. European Planning Studies, 25(6), 994-1012. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2017.1296110.
21. Karakus, C. B., Cerit, O., & Kavak, K. S. (2015). Determination of land use/cover changes and land use potentials of Sivas city and its surroundings using geographical information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS). Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 15, 454-461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2015.08.040.
22. Karimi, F; Jalili Sadrabad, S.; Khairuddin, R., (2021), identification and structural analysis of drivers of change in the field of land use (case study: Fahadan neighborhood of the historical context of Yazd); Future Studies of Iran, 6 (2); 306-328. (In Persian).
23. Kashif, H; Golnari Azar, B, (2016), researching the system of future research functions in explaining the doctrines of Mahdism, Mashreq Mouaud, 10(39), 95-107. (In Persian).
24. Kim, Y., Newman, G., & Güneralp, B. (2020). A review of driving factors, scenarios, and topics in urban land change models. Land. 9(8), 246. https://doi.org/10.3390/LAND9080246.
25. Messerli, P Andreas H, MarkusG, (2013). From ‘land grabbing’ to sustainable investments in land: potential contributions by land change science, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(5), 528-534. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.cosust.2013.03.004
26. Nasser Abadi, Z. (2000), Future studies, Strategic Planning and Studies Center, Tehran: Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute. (In Persian).
27. Nazimi, A., Ghadiri, R. (2015), Foresight from Concept to Implementation, Ministry of Industries and Mines, Center for Modern Industries, Tehran. (In Persian).
28. Nikpour, A., Amounia, H., & Nourpasandi, E. (2021). Monitoring and predicting land use changes using landsat satellite images by Cellular Automata and Markov model (Case study: Abbasabad area, Mazandaran province). Journal of RS and GIS for Natural Resources, 12(2), 35-53. (In Persian).
29. Oliveira, E., Tobias, S., & Hersperger, A. M. (2018). Can strategic spatial planning contribute to land degradation reduction in urban regions? State of the art and future research. Sustainability, 10(4), 949. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10040949.
30. Pontius, R. G., Castella, J.-C., de Nijs, T., Duan, Z., Fotsing, E., Goldstein, N., et al. (2018). Lessons and challenges in land change modeling derived from synthesis of cross-case comparisons (143-164). Cham: Springer. https://do.i.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52522-8_8.
31. Pourmohammadi, M., Ahani, S., Zarei, F., zarei, K. (2017). Assessment of Priorities Allocation of Urban Land Use with Emphasis on Implementation of Electronic City System (Case Study: Ten Region of Tabriz). Geography and Planning, 20(58), 43-61. (In Persian).
32. Rahimi, A. (2020). Urban Land Policies and Their Impact on the Development of Tabriz, 13(48), 109-130. (In Persian).
33. Salaavarzi zadeh, M., Sheikhi, H., & Goldosti, Z. (2021). Identifying and analysis of factors affecting urban development with a futuristic approach (Case study: Ilam city). Human Geography Research, 53(4), 1491-1508. doi: 10.22059/jhgr.2021.303319.1008124. (In Persian).
34. Saymohammadi, S., Tavakoli, M., Zarafshani, K., Mehdizadeh, H., & Amiri, F. (2021). Investigation of the process of land use change in Mahidasht plain watershed using Remote Sensing images. Sustainability, Development & Environment, 2(2), 53-70. (In Persian).
35. Seto, K; Bhartendu P, (2019), Urban Land Use: Central to Building a Sustainable Future, One Earth, 1(2), 168-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.10.002.
36. Slaughter, R. A, (2014). Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, the Futures Study Centre, Australia.
37. Soleimani A, Majnouni Toutakhane A, Soleimani A R, Aftab A. Assessment and Analysis of Sustainability Status in Metropolises, Case Study: All Ten Regions of Tabriz. GeoRes 2018; 33 (1) :140-157. (In Persian).
38. Su, L., Fu, L., (2021). Regional land planning based on BPNN and space mining technology. Neural Comput. Appl. 33, 5241–5255 https://doi.org/10/gmt9bc.
39. Taleshi, M., Rahimipour, M., (2017), Modeling sustainable allocation of land use in the rural areas of eastern Gilan, Space Economy and Rural Development, 6(4); 119-146. (In Persian).
40. Vali, A. A., Mousavi, S. H., & Abbasi, H. (2019). Analysis and evaluation of landuse changes trend in Mobarakeh in order to achieve the sustainable development. Journal of Urban Social Geography, 6(2), 73-86. (In Persian).
41. Yin, L., Dai, E., Xie, G., Zhang, B., (2021). Effects of Land-Use Intensity and Land Management Policies on Evolution of Regional Land System: A Case Study in the Hengduan Mountain Region. Land, 10, 528 https://doi.org/10/gk57mv.
42. Zang, Y; Yang, Y, (2021), Toward serving land consolidation on the table of sustainability: An overview of the research landscape and future directions, Land Use Policy, 109, 105696. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105696.
43. Ziaul H, Muhammad, C, Shenghui, I, (2020), Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh, Sustainability 2020, 12(5), 2112; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12052112.
44. Zinali Azim, A, (2020), Analysis of the physical development of Tabriz city based on the analysis of smart urban growth indicators (case study: Zone 2, 4 and 7 of Tabriz), urban planning doctoral thesis, under the guidance of Mir Saeed Mousavi, Faculty of Arts, University Islamic Azad Marand Branch. (In Persian).
45. Zuo Q, Zhou, Y, Wang L, L, Q, Liu, J, (2022), Impacts of future land use changes on land use conflicts based on multiple scenarios in the central mountain region, China, Ecological Indicators 137, 1-18. 108743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108743.
46. Zuo, Q. (2010). Without zoning: Urban development and land use controls in Houston. Cities, 27(1), 31-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2009.11.006.