موازنه گستردگی/عمق؛ مدل‌سازی تصمیم‌گیری مدیریتی در شرایط عدم قطعیت با رویکرد رفتاری – شناختی

مطالعات رفتاری در مدیریت

دوره 14، شماره 33، فروردین 1402، صفحه 1-19   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

علیرضا ولیان¹؛ حسین رحمان سرشت^{* 2}

¹گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی،

²استاد مدیریت استراتژیک، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی

چکیده

این پژوهش باهدف مدل‌سازی الگوی تصمیم‌گیری مدیریتی در شرایط عدم قطعیت به‌منظور توسعه شواهد تجربی لازم برای گسترش به‌کارگیری رویکردهای رفتاری - شناختی در مطالعات علوم اعصاب شناختی سازمانی صورت‌گرفته است. این پژوهش از نظر دیدگاه فلسفی اثبات‌گرا، با رویکرد استدلال استقرایی و استراتژی تجربی و در قالب یک طرح شبه آزمایشگاهی اجرا شده است. 62 نفر (33 زن) در قالب دو گروه آزمودنی شامل افراد باسابقه مدیریت حرفه‌ای در سطوح میانی سازمان (29 نفر) و افراد فاقد سابقه مدیریتی (31) نفر، یک آزمون رفتاری تصمیم‌گیری مدیریتی در شرایط عدم قطعیت در چارچوب موازنه گستردگی/عمق را انجام دادند. مدل‌سازی داده‌های به‌دست‌آمده از آزمون رفتاری با استفاده از روش رگرسیون خطی نشان داد که مدل‌های توانی بهتر از مدل‌های خطی داده‌ها را در هر دو گروه توصیف می‌کند. علاوه بر این، بررسی الگوی تصمیم‌گیری مدیریتی در شرایط عدم قطعیت تفاوت معنی‌داری در بین مدیران و افراد فاقد سابقه مدیریتی نشان نداد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که از منظر موازنه گستردگی/عمق تفاوت معنی‌داری بین مدیران و نامدیران در موقعیت‌های تصمیم‌گیری در شرایط عدم قطعیت وجود ندارد و بنابراین موازنه گستردگی/عمق را می‌توان به‌عنوان یک میان‌بر شناختی در موقعیت‌‌های تصمیم‌گیری در شرایط عدم قطعیت نظر گرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تصمیم‌گیری مدیریتی؛ موازنه گستردگی/عمق؛ عدم قطعیت؛ علوم اعصاب شناختی سازمانی

مراجع

Ackoff, Russell L. (1979): Resurrecting the future of operational research. In Journal of the Operational Research Society 30 (3), pp. 189–199.

Arend, Richard J. (2020): Strategic decision-making under ambiguity: a new problem space and a proposed optimization approach. In Business Research 13 (3), pp. 1231–1251.

Bach, Dominik R.; Dolan, Raymond J. (2012): Knowing how much you don't know. A neural organization of uncertainty estimates. In Nature reviews neuroscience 13 (8), pp. 572–586. DOI: 10.1038/nrn3289.

Bechara, Antoine; Damasio, Hanna; Tranel, Daniel; Damasio, Antonio R. (2005): The Iowa Gambling Task and the somatic marker hypothesis. Some questions and answers. In Trends in cognitive sciences 9 (4), pp. 159–162.

Bedenk, Stephan; Mieg, Harald A. (2018): Failure in innovation decision making. In: Strategies in Failure Management: Springer, pp. 95–106.

Birollo, Gustavo; Rouleau, Linda; Teerikangas, Satu Päivi (2018): Middle Managers’ Interactions at the Heart of the Strategy-Adaptation Process in Acquisitions. In Academy of Management Proceedings 2018 (1), p. 12954. DOI: 10.5465/AMBPP.2018.12954abstract.

Bland, Amy Rachel (2012): Different varieties of uncertainty in human decision-making. In Frontiers in neuroscience 6, p. 85.

Boulding, William; Moore, Marian Chapman; Staelin, Richard; Corfman, Kim P.; Dickson, Peter Reid; Fitzsimons, Gavan, et al. (1994): Understanding managers' strategic decision-making process. In Marketing Letters 5 (4), pp. 413–426.

Brand, Matthias; Labudda, Kirsten; Markowitsch, Hans J. (2006): Neuropsychological correlates of decision-making in ambiguous and risky situations. In Neural Networks 19 (8), pp. 1266–1276. DOI: 10.1016/j.neunet.2006.03.001.

Busemeyer, J. R., & Johnson, J. G. (2004). Computational models of decision making. Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making, 133-154.

Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G.; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl (2012): Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers. In PloS one.

Cert, Patrick Easen; Wilcockson, Jane (1996): Intuition and rational decision‐making in professional thinking: a false dichotomy? In Journal of advanced nursing 24 (4), pp. 667–673.

Checkland, Peter B. (1989): Soft systems methodology. In Human systems management 8 (4), pp. 273–289.

Cohen, Michael D.; March, James G.; Olsen, Johan P. (1972): A garbage can model of organizational choice. In Administrative science quarterly, pp. 1–25.

Damghani, K. Khalili; Taghavifard, M. T.; Moghaddam, R. Tavakkoli (Eds.) (2009): Decision making under uncertain and risky situations: Citeseer (15).

Di Caprio, Debora; Santos-Arteaga, Francisco J.; Tavana, Madjid (2014): The optimal sequential information acquisition structure: a rational utility-maximizing perspective. In Applied Mathematical Modelling 38 (14), pp. 3419–3435.

Dreu, Carsten K. W. de; Weingart, Laurie R. (2003): Task versus relationship conflict, team performance, and team member satisfaction: a meta-analysis. In Journal of Applied Psychology 88 (4), p. 741.

Dutton, Jane E.; Ashford, Susan J. (1993): Selling issues to top management. In Academy of Management Review 18 (3), pp. 397–428.

Dayan, P., & Abbott, L. F. (2005). Theoretical neuroscience: computational and mathematical modeling of neural systems. MIT Press.

Einola, Suvi (2017): Making Sense of Strategic Decision Making. In: Real-time Strategy and Business Intelligence: Springer, pp. 149–166.

Eisenhardt, Kathleen M.; Zbaracki, Mark J. (1992): Strategic decision making. In Strategic management journal 13 (S2), pp. 17–37.

Farrar, Danielle C.; Mian, Asim Z.; Budson, Andrew E.; Moss, Mark B.; Killiany, Ronald J. (2018): Functional brain networks involved in decision-making under certain and uncertain conditions. In Neuroradiology 60 (1), pp. 61–69. DOI: 10.1007/s00234-017-1949-1.

FeldmanHall, Oriel; Glimcher, Paul; Baker, Augustus L.; Phelps, Elizabeth A. (2016): Emotion and decision-making under uncertainty: Physiological arousal predicts increased gambling during ambiguity but not risk. In Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 145 (10), p. 1255.

FeldmanHall, Oriel; Shenhav, Amitai (2019): Resolving uncertainty in a social world. In Nature human behavior 3 (5), pp. 426–435.

Friend, John Kimball; Hickling, Allen (2005): Planning under pressure: the strategic choice approach: Routledge.

Gigerenzer, Gerd (2004): Fast and frugal heuristics: The tools of bounded rationality. In Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making 62, p. 88.

Gloy, K.; Herrmann, M.; Fehr, T. (2020): Decision making under uncertainty in a quasi-realistic binary decision task - An fMRI study. In Brain and cognition 140, p. 105549. DOI: 10.1016/j.bandc.2020.105549.

Gottlieb, Jacqueline; Oudeyer, Pierre-Yves (2018): Towards a neuroscience of active sampling and curiosity. In Nature reviews neuroscience 19 (12), pp. 758–770.

Greifeneder, Rainer; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Kleber, Nina (2010): Less may be more when choosing is difficult: Choice complexity and too much choice. In Acta Psychologica 133 (1), pp. 45–50.

Guo, Yidi; Huy, Quy Nguyen; Xiao, Zhixing (2017): How middle managers manage the political environment to achieve market goals: Insights from C hina's state‐owned enterprises. In Strategic management journal 38 (3), pp. 676–696.

Haita-Falah, Corina (2017): Sunk-cost fallacy and cognitive ability in individual decision-making. In Journal of Economic Psychology 58, pp. 44–59.

Hambrick, Donald C.; Crossland, Craig (2018): A strategy for behavioral strategy: Appraisal of small, midsize, and large tent conceptions of this embryonic community. In: Behavioral strategy in perspective: Emerald Publishing Limited.

Hansen, Kathleen; Hillenbrand, Sarah; Ungerleider, Leslie (2012): Effects of prior knowledge on decisions made under perceptual vs. categorical uncertainty. In Frontiers in neuroscience 6, p. 163.

Hirsh, Jacob B.; Mar, Raymond A.; Peterson, Jordan B. (2012): Psychological entropy: a framework for understanding uncertainty-related anxiety. In Psychological Review 119 (2), p. 304.

Ivancevich, John M.; Matteson, Michael T.; Konopaske, Robert (1990): Organizational behavior and management.

Johnson, Johnnie E. V.; Powell, Philip L. (1994): Decision making, risk, and gender: Are managers different? In British journal of management 5 (2), pp. 123–138.

Jordan, Lizabeth; Thatchenkery, Tojo (2011): Leadership decision-making strategies using appreciative inquiry: A case study. In International Journal of Globalisation and Small Business 4 (2), pp. 178–190.

Kahneman, Daniel; Egan, Patrick (2011): Thinking, fast and slow: Farrar, Straus and Giroux New York.

Knight, Frank Hyneman (1921): Risk, uncertainty, and profit: Houghton Mifflin.

Krain, Amy L.; Wilson, Amanda M.; Arbuckle, Robert; Castellanos, F. Xavier; Milham, Michael P. (2006): Distinct neural mechanisms of risk and ambiguity. A meta-analysis of decision-making. In Neuroimage 32 (1), pp. 477–484.

Kriegeskorte, N., & Douglas, P. K. (2018). Cognitive computational neuroscience. Nature neuroscience, 21(9), 1148-1160.

Laureiro-Martinez, Daniella (2014): Cognitive control capabilities, routinization propensity, and decision-making performance. In Organization Science 25 (4), pp. 1111–1133.

Laureiro-Martínez, Daniella; Brusoni, Stefano; Canessa, Nicola; Zollo, Maurizio (2015): Understanding the exploration-exploitation dilemma. An fMRI study of attention control and decision-making performance. In Strat. Mgmt. J. 36 (3), pp. 319–338. DOI: 10.1002/smj.2221.

Laureiro‐Martínez, Daniella; Brusoni, Stefano (2018): Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision-makers. In Strat. Mgmt. J. 39 (4), pp. 1031–1058.

Lavarda, Rosalia Aldraci Barbosa; Canet-Giner, María Teresa; Peris-Bonet, Fernando Juan (2010): How middle managers contribute to the strategy formation process. Connection of strategy processes and strategy practices. In Revista de Administração de Empresas 50 (4), pp. 358–370.

Lawton, Rebecca; Robinson, Olivia; Harrison, Rebecca; Mason, Suzanne; Conner, Mark; Wilson, Brad (2019): Are more experienced clinicians better able to tolerate uncertainty and manage risks? A vignette study of doctors in three NHS emergency departments in England. In BMJ quality & safety 28 (5), pp. 382–388.

Levy, Ifat (2017): Neuroanatomical Substrates for Risk Behavior. In The Neuroscientist: a review journal bringing neurobiology, neurology and psychiatry 23 (3), pp. 275–286. DOI: 10.1177/1073858416672414.

Luan, Shenghua; Reb, Jochen; Gigerenzer, Gerd (2019): Ecological rationality: Fast-and-frugal heuristics for managerial decision making under uncertainty. In Academy of management journal 62 (6), pp. 1735–1759.

Marchau, Vincent AWJ; Walker, Warren E.; Bloemen, Pieter JTM; Popper, Steven W. (2019): Decision making under deep uncertainty: from theory to practice: Springer Nature.

Meder, David; Haagensen, Brian Numelin; Hulme, Oliver; Morville, Tobias; Gelskov, Sofie; Herz, Damian Marc et al. (2016): Tuning the Brake While Raising the Stake. Network Dynamics during Sequential Decision-Making. In Journal of Neuroscience 36 (19), pp. 5417–5426. DOI: 10.1523/JNEUROSCI.3191-15.2016.

Miller, C. Chet; Cardinal, Laura B. (1994): Strategic planning and firm performance: A synthesis of more than two decades of research. In Academy of management journal 37 (6), pp. 1649–1665.

Mintzberg, Henry; Raisinghani, Duru; Theoret, Andre (1976): The structure of" unstructured" decision processes. In Administrative science quarterly, pp. 246–275.

Mitroff, Ian I.; Mason, Richard O. (1982): Business policy and metaphysics: Some philosophical considerations. In Academy of Management Review 7 (3), pp. 361–371.

Miyapuram, Krishna P.; Pammi, V. ChandrasekharS (2013): Understanding decision neuroscience. A multidisciplinary perspective and neural substrates. In Michael M. Merzenich, Mor Nahum, Thomas M. van Vleet (Eds.): Changing brains. Applying brain plasticity to advance and recover human ability / edited by Michael M. Merzenich, Mor Nahum, Thomas M. Van Vleet, vol. 202. Amsterdam: Elsevier (Progress in brain research, Volume 207), pp. 239–266.

Monosov, Ilya E. (2020): How outcome uncertainty mediates attention, learning, and decision-making. In Trends in neurosciences.

Moreno-Bote, Rubén; Ramírez-Ruiz, Jorge; Drugowitsch, Jan; Hayden, Benjamin Y. (2020): Heuristics and optimal solutions to the breadth–depth dilemma. In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 (33), pp. 19799–19808.

Novikova, Natalia M.; Pospelova, Irina I. (2002): Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty. In Mathematical Programming 92 (3), pp. 537–554.

O'Bryan, Sean R.; Worthy, Darrell A.; Livesey, Evan J.; Davis, Tyler (2018): Model-based fMRI reveals dissimilarity processes underlying base rate neglect. In eLife 7. DOI: 10.7554/eLife.36395.

Oehler, Andreas; Wedlich, Florian (2018): The relationship of extraversion and neuroticism with risk attitude, risk perception, and return expectations. In Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics 11 (2), p. 63.

Parr, Ashley C.; Coe, Brian C.; Munoz, Douglas P.; Dorris, Michael C. (2020): A novel fMRI paradigm to dissociate the behavioral and neural components of mixed‐strategy decision making from non‐strategic decisions in humans. In European journal of neuroscience 51 (9), pp. 1914–1927.

Poudel, Ranjita; Riedel, Michael C.; Salo, Taylor; Flannery, Jessica S.; Hill-Bowen, Lauren D.; Eickhoff, Simon B., et al. (2020): Common and distinct brain activity associated with risky and ambiguous decision-making. In Drug and alcohol dependence 209, p. 107884. DOI: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2020.107884.

Powell, Thomas C.; Lovallo, Dan; Fox, Craig R. (2011): Behavioral strategy. In Strat. Mgmt. J. 32 (13), pp. 1369–1386. DOI: 10.1002/smj.968.

Ramírez-Ruiz, Jorge; Moreno-Bote, Rubén (2021): Optimal allocation of finite sampling capacity in accumulator models of multi-alternative decision making. In arXiv preprint arXiv:2102.01597.

Riabacke, Ari (2006): Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty. In IAENG International Journal of Computer Science 32 (4).

Román, Francisco J.; Colom, Roberto; Hillman, Charles H.; Kramer, Arthur F.; Cohen, Neal J.; Barbey, Aron K. (2019): Cognitive and neural architecture of decision making competence. In Neuroimage 199, pp. 172–183.

Rosenhead, Jonathan (1980): Planning under uncertainty: II. A methodology for robustness analysis. In Journal of the Operational Research Society 31 (4), pp. 331–341.

Schoenherr, Jordan Richard; Burleigh, Tyler J. (2020): Dissociating affective and cognitive dimensions of uncertainty by altering regulatory focus. In Acta Psychologica 205, p. 103017.

Siegrist, Michael (2021): Trust and risk perception: A critical review of the literature. In Risk Analysis 41 (3), pp. 480–490.

Simon, Herbert A. (1979): Rational decision making in business organizations. In The American economic review 69 (4), pp. 493–513.

Smith, David V.; Huettel, Scott A. (2010): Decision neuroscience: neuroeconomics. In Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science 1 (6), pp. 854–871.

Sniazhko, Sniazhana (2019): Uncertainty in decision-making: A review of the international business literature. In Cogent Business & Management 6 (1), p. 1650692.

Sund, Kristian J.; Galavan, Robert J.; Huff, Anne Sigismund (2016): Uncertainty and strategic decision making: Emerald Group Publishing.

Valyan, Alireza; Ekhtiari, Hamed; Rahmanseresht, Hossein (2022): Managerial Decision Making: An Organizational Cognitive Neuroscience Perspective. Allameh Tabatabaei' University.

Valyan, Alireza; Ekhtiari, Hamed; Smith, Ryan; Paulus, Martin P. (2020): Decision-making deficits in substance use disorders: cognitive functions, assessment paradigms, and levels of evidence. In: Cognition and Addiction: Elsevier, pp. 25–61.

Vickery, Timothy J.; Jiang, Yuhong V. (2009): Inferior parietal lobule supports decision making under uncertainty in humans. In Cerebral Cortex 19 (4), pp. 916–925. DOI: 10.1093/cercor/bhn140.

Vidal, Alice; Moreno Bote, Ruben; Soto-Faraco, Salvador (2021a): Breadth versus depth: identifying close-to-optimal heuristics in human decision-making with finite resources.

Vidal, Alice; Soto-Faraco, Salvador; Moreno-Bote, Rubén (2021b): Humans balance breadth and depth: Near-optimal performance in many-alternative decision making.

Vyatkin, A. V., Fomina, L. V., & Shmeleva, Z. N. (2019, August). Empathy, emotional intelligence and decision-making among managers of agro-industrial complex. The role of tolerance for uncertainty in decision-making. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 315, No. 2, p. 022081). IOP Publishing.

Watkiss, Paul; Hunt, Alistair; Blyth, William; Dyszynski, Jillian (2015): The use of new economic decision support tools for adaptation assessment: A review of methods and applications, towards guidance on applicability. In Climatic Change 132 (3), pp. 401–416.

Yu, Angela J. (2013): Decision-Making Tasks. In Dieter Jaeger, Ranu Jung (Eds.): Encyclopedia of Computational Neuroscience. New York, NY: Springer New York, pp. 1–8.

Yu, Angela J.; Dayan, Peter (2004): Inference, attention, and decision in a Bayesian neural architecture. In Advances in neural information processing systems 17, pp. 1577–1584.

Zheng, Wei; Li, Bo; Song, Dong-Ping (2017): Effects of risk-aversion on competing shipping lines’ pricing strategies with uncertain demands. In Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 104, pp. 337–356.