Forecast of climatologically events using improved grey model (Case Study: Qazvin Province Climatology)

Iranian Journal of Optimization

مقاله 6، دوره 11، شماره 1، شهریور 2019، صفحه 49-56   

نوع مقاله: Research Paper

نویسندگان

Maryam Karimi Khajehghiasi¹؛ Alireza Alinezhad^{* 2}

¹MSc. Student, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial and Mechanical Engineering, Qazvin branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.

²Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial and Mechanical Engineering, Qazvin branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.

چکیده

The theory of grey system is used when sufficient information of the community under study is not in hand. The grey forecast model is proper when the information variety is fix and certain. Grey model can apply some additional computations to improve forecasting activities when data is insufficient. Through using improved grey model, the assessment error decreases significantly. This study made use of the mean maximum daily temperature data collected by Qazvin meteorological station, from August 2001 to August 2013. The findings revealed that the grey model metabolism method can reduce errors and improve the precision of forecasting the mean variable of maximum daily temperature.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Forecast؛ Grey Model؛ metabolism

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