تحلیل ژئوپلیتیکی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر توسعه پایدار کشور ایران‌(‌متغیر تعدیل گر تصمیمات سیاسی)

فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی نگرش های نو در جغرافیای انسانی

مقاله 8، دوره 12، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 46، فروردین 1399، صفحه 133-152   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی استخراج ازرساله و پایان نامه

نویسندگان

محمد بصیری صدر¹؛ محمد اخباری^{* 2}؛ عبد الرضا فرجی راد³؛ رضا برنا⁴

¹دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

²دانشیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد تهران مرکزی ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.(نویسنده مسئول ([e-mail]‌)

³دانشیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

⁴دانشیارگروه جغرافیای اقلیم شناسی، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.

چکیده

چکیده
بزرگ‌ترین تهدید زیست‌محیطی امروز گرمایش جهانی و تغییرات اقلیمی است. اثرات تغییر اقلیم منجر به کمبود آب و غذا، بیماری، بیکاری و مهاجرت، فقر، تنش‌ها در خصوص منابع و بی‌ثباتی جهانی می‌شود. هدف از انجام این پژوهش تحلیل ژئوپلیتیکی اثرات تغییر اقلیم در کشور و تأثیر آن بر توسعه پایدار با توجه به تصمیمات سیاسی دولتمردان است. این مقاله از نوع توصیفی، تحلیلی و با روش پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل صاحب‌نظران و متخصصین شاغل در سازمان‌های هواشناسی، محیط‌زیست و پدافند غیرعامل است و پرسشنامه بر اساس شاخص‌های اثرات تغییر اقلیم، توسعه پایدار و تصمیمات سیاسی طراحی و در بین آن‌ها توزیع گردید که تعداد 60 پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری شد و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار (pls) فرضیه تحقیق اثبات گردید. بر اساس یافته‌ها اثرات تغییر اقلیم با توسعه پایدار رابطه معنادار و معکوس دارد، همچنین بین تأثیرات تصمیمات سیاسی بر توسعه پایدار ایران رابطه معناداری و معکوس وجود دارد. درنهایت تصمیمات سیاسی در تأثیر تغییرات اقلیم بر توسعه پایدار ایران اثر تعدیل گر ندارد. بدین معنی که برخلاف سایر کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و حتی در حال توسعه، تصمیمات سیاسی گرفته شده در دولت در کاهش اثرات تغییر اقلیم در کشور مؤثر نبوده است. در پایان بر لزوم مشارکت دولت در اجرای روش‌های مؤثر از جمله آبخیزداری و استفاده از انرژی‌های پاک جهت کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای برای سازگاری با اثرات تغییر اقلیم تأکید شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

واژگان کلیدی: تغییر اقلیم؛ گرمایش جهانی؛ توسعه پایدار؛ تصمیمات سیاسی؛ ژئوپلیتیک

مراجع

-       References

1. Amirnejad, Hamid, Asadpour Kordi, Maryam (1396), Investigation of Climate Change Effects on Iranian Wheat Production. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research. Ancestor 9 No. 3 Autumn 96
2. R. Lee, James (2011), The Geopolitics of Climate Change, translated by Mohammad Hassan Nami. Tehran: Sohreh Publications p. 191 and 198
3. Buzan, Barry & Weaver, Eli & Pope Dovid (2013), A New Framework for Security Analysis, translated by Alireza Tayeb. Tehran: Institute for Strategic Studies
4. Buckley, Harriet and Newwell, Peter (1986), Climate Change Governance. Translated by Mohammad Kazem Shams Pouya, Ali Mohammad Nejad, Ali Asghar Lashgari, Arash Ghorbani Sepehr. Mashhad: Papelli Publishing, pp. 8-9
5. Hafeznia, Mohammad Reza (2011), Principles and Concepts of Geopolitics, Mashhad: Papelli Publications
6. Khosh Manesh, Behnoush and Pourhashimi, Seyed Abbas and Soltanieh, Mohammad and Hermidas Bavand, Davood (2015), Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Human Rights. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Article 15, Volume 17, Number 4, Winter 94 Page 223-234
7. Guide, Mohammad Taghi (2016), Iran, Its Natural and Environmental Capabilities. Tehran: Mahkameh Publications
8. Abbasi Semnani, Alireza (2013), Iran's Geopolitical Position in Regional and World Power Relations. Journal of Sepehr Volume 22, Issue 86, Summer 92
9. Azizi, Mohammad Mehdi (2004), Sustainable Urban Development, Analytical Implications from a Global Perspective, Journal of School of Architecture and Urban Planning Shahid Beheshti University, No. 33

10. Alijani, Behlol and Ghavidel Rahimi, Yousef (2005), Comparison of Prediction of Tabriz Annual Temperature Changes with Global Temperature Anomaly Using Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network. Journal of Geography and Development, Volume 3, Issue 6, p. 21

11. Flamaki, Mohammad Mansour (2008), Theoretical Origins and Tendencies of Architecture. Tehran: Space Publishing

12. Kaviani Rad, Morad (2011), Geopolitical Ratio of Environmental Security and Sustainable Development: A Case Study of Lake Urmia. Tehran: Strategic Studies No. 4 Year One

13. Kaviani Rad, Morad (2012), Environmental security from a geopolitical perspective. Tehran: Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, Volume 20, Number 23, p. 92

14. Kaviani Rad, Morad and Karimipour, Yadollah and Fahmi, Hedayat and Karami, Sadegh (1986), Explaining the Security Consequences of Climate Change in Central Iran. Journal of Applied Geosciences Research. Seventeenth Year 45 Summer 96.

15. Karimipour, Yadollah and Karimipour, Hoda (2011), Political Ecology, Tehran: Danesh Pouyan Javan Publications

16. Goodarzi, Mohammad Reza and Fatehifar, Atieh (1398), Flood Risk Mapping under RCP 8.5 Scenario Using SWAT Hydrological Model in GIS (Azarshahr Tea Area). Journal of Applied Geosciences Research. 19th Year No. 53 Summer 98.

17. Giddens, Anthony (2012), Climate Change Policies. Translated by Zahra Peshaghi Fard and Mohammad Sadegh Yahyaipour and Sajjad Karimi, Tehran: Armed Forces Geographical Organization Publications Page 226

18. Mojtahedzadeh, Pirouz (2002), Iranian Ideas and Geopolitical Changes, Tehran: Ney Publishing

19. Iran Census Center (2016) Population and Housing Census 2016. Iranian Statistics Center Publication

20. Mahmoudi, Abolfazl. Piousness, Abouzar (2015), Economic Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Performance, Crop Pattern and Gross Agricultural Profit (Case Study of Qazvin Plain) Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research. The first volume of the second issue of March 94

21. Naseri, Mohsen and Mohammad Sadegh Ahadi (2016), Assessing the Islamic Republic of Iran's Climate Change Policies. Journal of Social Cultural Strategy. Fifth Year No. 21 pp. 21-25

22. Abbasi Semnani, Alireza (2013). Geopolitical Position of Iran in Regional and World Power Relationships, Sepehr Magazine Volume 22, Issue 86, Summer 2013[In Persian]

23. Alijani, B. Q. Rahimi, Y (2005). Comparison of the Estimation of Tabriz Annual Temperature Changes with the Thermal Abnormality of the Earth Using Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network, Journal of Geography and Development, Vol. 3 no 6, p. 21[In Persian]

24. Amirnejad, Hamid. Asad Pour Kurdi, Maryam (2017). Effects of Climate Change on Iranian Wheat Production. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research. Ancestor 9 No. 3 Fall 2017[In Persian]

25. Buckley, Harriet. Newwell, Peter (2017) Climate Change Governance. Translated by Mohammad Kazem Shams Pouya, Ali Mohammad Nejad, Ali Asghar Lashgari, Arash Ghorbani Sepehr. Mashhad: Papelli Publication pp. 8-9

26. Buzan, Barry. Weaver, Elie and Pop Dvollide (2013) A New Framework for Security Analysis, translated by Alireza Tayeb. Tehran: Publication of Strategic Studies Research Center p. 106198

27. Falamaki, Mohammad Mansour (2008) The Origins and Theoretical Approaches of Architecture. Tehran: Publication of Faza. p: 300[In Persian]

28. Giddens, Antony (2012) Climate Change Policies. Translation of Fred Zahra. Yahya Pour, Mohammad Sadiq Karimi, Sajjad. Tehran: Geographic Organization of the Armed Forces Publication p. 226

29. Hafez Nia, Mohammad Reza (2011). Principles and concepts of geopolitics. Mashhad: Papeli Publications p. 37-89[In Persian]

30. Kaviani Rad, Morad (2011) Geopolitical Relationship of Environmental Security and Sustainable Development; Case Study of Lake Urmia. Tehran: Strategic Studies of the fourth year of issue No. 1[In Persian]

31. Kaviani Rad, Morad (2012) Environmental security from a geopolitical point of view. Tehran: Journal of Applied Geosciences Research, vol. 20 no 23, p. 92[In Persian]

32. Karimipour, Yadollah. Kaviani Rad, Murad. Fahmi, Hedayat and Karami, Sadiq (2017) Explaining the Consequences of Climate Change Change in the Central Iranian Watershed Area. Journal of Applied Geosciences Research. Year 17, No. 45, Summer 96. pp. 75-96[In Persian]

33. Khooshmanesh,Behnoosh. Pourhashemi, Seyyed Abbas Soltanieh, Mohammad Hermeida Bavand, Davod (2015) Study of the Consequences of Climate Change from a Human Rights Perspective. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Journal 15, Volume 17, Issue 4, Winter 1994 Page 223-234[In Persian]

34. Lee, James R (2011) Geopolitics of atmospheric change, translation by Mohammad Hassan Nami. Tehran: Nahr-e-Sahehr Publications p. 191 and 198

35. Mahmoudi, Abolfazl. Pahrizkari, Abuzar (2015) Economic Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Products Performance, Cropping Pattern and Gross Agricultural Income (Case Study of Qazvin Plain) Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research. The first period 2is March, 2015[In Persian]

36. Mojtahedzadeh, Pirouz, (2002) Iranian Ideas and Geopolitical Transformations, Tehran: Neshrani Page 127[In Persian]

37. Naseri, Mohsen.Hadi, Mohammad Sadegh (2016) Evaluation of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Climate Change Policies. Journal of Social Cultural Strategy. Fifth Year No. 21 pp. 21-25[In Persian]

38. The Center for Strategic Observations of the Aristocrat (2015). Iran's water crisis is a more dangerous threat than foreign enemies. Code 5442[In Persian]

39. References (in English)

40. Ader,W.N.Hug,S.Brown,K.Conway,D.&Hulme,M. (2003). Adaptation to Climate Change in the Developing World. Progress in Development Studies 179-188

41. - Angel. J (2008). Potential Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability. Illinois State Water Survey. Institute of Natural Resource Sustainability

42. Barclay, D. Higgins, C. & Thompson, R. (1995). The Partial Least Squares Approach to Causal Modling: Personal Computer Adoption and use as an Illustration, Technological Studies, 2 (2),285-309

43. Ding, Y. Hayes, M. J. Widhalm, M. (2011). Measuring economic impacts of drought: A review and discussion. Disaster Prevention and Management. 20 (4): 434–446.

44. Hulme, Mike (2016). "Concept of Climate Change, in: The International Encyclopedia of Geography". The International Encyclopedia of Geography. Wiley-Blackwell,Association of American Geographers (AAG). Retrieved 16 May

45. Hommel,Demian. Murphy,Alexander B(2013) Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change. GeoJournal (2013) 78:507–524 DOI 10.1007/s10708-012-9448-8 pp519-520

46. Epstein, Paul R. Ferber, Dan (2011). Changing Planet, Changing Health: How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Health and what We Can Do about it. University of California Press

47. Gleick, Peter H. (2014) Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Wea. Climate Soc.331-340

48. Hall, Jahn (2016) Social futures of global climate change: A structural phenomenology. American Journal of Cultural Sociology; Basingstoke 4.1 (Feb 2016): 1-45.

49. Higgins, Eoin (2019). "Climate Crisis Brings Historic Delay to Planting Season, Pressuring Farmers and Food Prices". Ecowatch. Retrieved 30 May 2019

50. Homme, Demian. Murphy, Alexander B(2013) Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change. GeoJournal (2013) 78:507–524 DOI 10.1007/s10708-012-9448-8pp520

51. IDMC (2014) (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre) Norwegian Refugee Council. "Displacement due to natural hazard-induced disasters: Global estimates for 2009 and 2010". Internal-displacement.org. Archived from the original on 1 March 2014. Retrieved 23 February 2014.

52. IPCC Climate Change (2001): The Scientific Basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds.).

53. IPCC Climate Change (2007). "Summary for Policymakers: C. Current knowledge about future impacts". Climate Change

54. IPCC, Climate Change(2013). The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers (AR5 WG1)" - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 17. Archived from the original on 22 December 2018. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century

55. Myers, Norman. (2002) "Environmental Refugees: A Growing Phenomenon." Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences 357.1420: 609. Print

56. NASA (2006) Where are the hottest spots on Earth? EOS, 87 (43), 461-467 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov.

57. NASA (2011) "What's in a Name? Global Warming vs Climate Change14357. Retrieved 23 July.

58. NASA(2017)"Scientific consensus. Climate Change". Vital Signs of the Planet: Earth's climate is warming Archived from the original on 28 June 2018. Retrieved 7 August 2017.

59. Paskal Cleo, House Chatham(June2007),How Climate Change is pushing the Bounndries of Security and Foreign Policy, Energy EEDP CC BP 07/01 Environment and Development Programme,

60. Reiter, Paul (2011). "Climate Change and Mosquito-Borne Disease". Environmental Health Perspectives. 109 (1): 141–161. Doi:10.1289/ehp.01109s1141. PMC 1240549. PMID 11250812. Archived from the original on 2011-08-24.

61. Schneider, S.H. et al. (2007). "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. and New York, N.Y. U.S.A. pp. 779–810.

62. Shaker, Richard Ross (2015). "The spatial distribution of development in Europe and its underlying sustainability correlations". Applied Geography. 63. p. 35.

63. Tubiello, Francesco N. Rosenzweig, Cynthia (2008). "Developing climate change impact metrics for agriculture". The Integrated Assessment Journal. 8 (1): 165–184

64. UN-Water (2013). UN Water Statistics" Archived 2013-05-17 at the Wayback Machine

65. Wetzels, M. Odekerken – Schorder, G & Van Oppen,C(2009) Using PLS Path Modeling for Assessing Hierarchical Constract Models: Guidelines and Empirical Illustration, MIS Quarterly, 33, (1),11

66. Wheeler D. (2011). Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change: Implications for Adaptation Assistance. CGD Working Paper 240. Washington, D.C. Center for Global Development.

67. White, F; Stallones, L; Last, JM. (2013). Global Public Health: Ecological Foundations. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-975190-7.

68. WOT(World Health Organization) (2018). "Climate change and health". World Health Organization. World Health Organization. Retrieved 27 February 2018

69. -http: //www.eshraf.ir

70. -http://www.iribnews.ir 1398/3/7

71. -http://www.otaghkhabar24.com 1397-05-11

72. -https://donya-e-eqtesad 1389/8/20

73. -https://ec.europa.eu/clima/change/consequences_en