طراحی مدل علّی مدیریت مصرف آب با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی FDelphi-FDANP (مورد مطالعه شرکت آب و فاضلاب مازندران)

فصلنامه مدیریت راهبردی در سیستم های صنعتی (مدیریت صنعتی سابق)

دوره 16، شماره 55، اردیبهشت 1400، صفحه 190-211   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/imj.2021.681899

نویسندگان

حبیب اله داداشی^{* 1}؛ علی ثریایی²؛ سید علی نبوی چاشمی³

¹دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت صنعتی،دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد بابل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بابل، ایران

²استادیار،گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد بابل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بابل، ایران

³دانشیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد بابل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بابل، ایران

چکیده

محدودیت های منابع آب آشامیدنی، خشک و کم آب بودن کشور، افزایش جمعیت و تقاضا، مصرف نادرست آب طی دهه های اخیر و توزیع نامتوازن زمانی و مکانی منابع آب موضوع بسیار حائز اهمیت است. نیاز به تغییر در شیوه های مدیریت تقاضای آب شرب و پیش بینی تقاضاهای جدید از طریق تحلیل عوامل موثر بر مصرف آب را بیشتر کرده است. هدف مقاله حاضر ارایه الگو جهت اولویت بندی راهبردهای مدیریت مصرف آب در بخش خانگی می باشد. اطلاعات از طریق مطالعه و بررسی کتابخانه ای در این حوزه و مصاحبه با خبرگان صنعت آب گردآوری شد. سپس با نمونه گیری گلوله برفی به تشکیل پانل دلفی با رویکردی فازی، عواملی که از جامعیت بیشتری برخوردار بودند شناسایی شد که در نهایت خبرگان بر 7 معیار اصلی اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی، فنی و مهندسی، قانونی و مدیریتی، مکانی و زمانی با 26 زیر معیار تاثیرگذار اتفاق نظر داشتند. برای بررسی درجه اهمیت و ارتباط بین عوامل و اولویت بندی زیرمعیارها با استفاده از تکنیک DANP فازی اقدام شد. نتایج نشان داد که عوامل اصلی فنی و مهندسی با درجه اهمیت (144/0)، زمان (790/0) و فرهنگی(040/0) به عنوان عامل اثرگذار تاثیر مهمی در مصرف آب داشته است و همچنین زیرمعیارهای اثرگذار شامل تنوع بخشی در عرضه، درآمد سرانه، جمعیت، علایق مصرف کننده، تعرفه و قیمت گذاری، مدت حضور در منزل، انگیزه مصرف، سطح زیر بنا، شاغل بودن زنان، فشار شبکه و برنامه های اصلاح الگوی مصرف می باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

دلفی فازی؛ DANP فازی؛ مصرف آب؛ مدیریت تقاضا

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