Electricity Demand Prediction by a Transformer-Based Model

Majlesi Journal of Electrical Engineering

مقاله 7، دوره 16، شماره 4، اسفند 2022، صفحه 97-102   

نوع مقاله: Reseach Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30486/mjee.2022.696520

نویسندگان

Ahmed Mohammed Mahmood^{* 1}؛ Musaddak Maher Abdul Zahra²؛ Waleed Hamed³؛ Bashar S. Bashar⁴؛ Alaa Hussein Abdulaal⁵؛ Taif Alawsi⁶؛ Ali Hussein Adhab⁷

¹Department of Optical Techniques, AlNoor University College, Iraq

²Computer Techniques Engineering Department, Al-Mustaqbal University College, Hillah 51001, Iraq

³Medical technical college, Al-Farahidi University, Baghdad, Iraq

⁴Al-Nisour University College, Baghdad, Iraq

⁵Medical Device Engineering, Ashur University College, Baghdad, Iraq

⁶Scientific Research Center, Al-Ayen University, Thi-Qar, Iraq

⁷Department of Medical Laboratory Technics, Al-Zahrawi University College, Karbala, Iraq

چکیده

The frighteningly high levels of power consumption at present are caused mainly by the expanding global population and the accessibility of energy-hungry smart technologies. So far, various simulation tools, engineering- and AI-based methodologies have been utilized to anticipate power consumption effectively. While engineering approaches forecast using dynamic equations, AI-based methods forecast using historical data. The modeling of nonlinear electrical demand patterns is still lacking for durable solutions, however, the available approaches are only effective for resolving transient dependencies. Furthermore, because they are only based on historical data, the current methodologies are static in nature. In this research, we present a system based on deep learning to anticipate power consumption while accounting for long-term historical relationships. In our approach, a transformer-based model is used for the prediction of electricity demand on data collected from the regional facilities in Iraq. According to the conducted experiments, our approach claims competitive performance, achieving an error rate of 2.0 in predicting 1-day-ahead of electricity demand in the test samples.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Electricity Demand؛ Machine Learning؛ Self-Attention؛ Power Consumption

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