The Effects of Climate Change on Iran's Sugarcane Production (Case study: Khuzestan Sugarcane)

International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development

مقاله 3، دوره 13، شماره 4، اسفند 2023

نوع مقاله: Research Article

نویسندگان

Abdollah Rajabali Nejad¹؛ Niv Nozari^{* 2}؛ Bita Rahimi Badr³

¹PhD student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Karaj branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran

²Member of the academic staff of the Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Karaj branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran

³Associate Professor, Karaj branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran

چکیده

Climate change due to global warming cause a lot of concern that requires comprehensive and reciprocal world wide action. The agricultural sector is one of the most dependent sectors on the climate, in the production cycle and food security of Iran, with a dry and hot climate is at a higher risk of global damages for these climate changes. Moreever, the major sugarcane industries of Iran are located in Khuzestan province which climatic variables in this region have recorded drastic and increasing changes procedure. In this article the effects of climate change on sugarcane industry in Khuzestan are studied (1971-2020). The usage of Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), an econometric model, helped examining the effect of climate factors such as temperature and precipitation on production. The results depicts a nonlinear relation between the climatic factors temperature and precipitation and production. As a matter of fact, the nonlinear relation in the form of an inverted U-shape in the graph shows the importance of climate change on agricultural production. The government's ownership of Khuzestan's sugarcane cultivation and the assignment of exclusive rights should provide maximum productivity, but not achieving an ideal goal. In conclusion, because of the negative effects of climate change on sugarcane production, it, is highly recommended to 1) Limit human intervention in nature, 2) Utilize varieties of other crops which are more resilientistant to climate change, 3) Alternate the cultivation patteren,and finally (4) To consider supportive policies in this matter to cope with the effects of climate change .

کلیدواژه‌ها

Climate change؛ sugarcane production in Khuzestan؛ temperature؛ precipitation؛ dynamic ordinary least squares